5 + 1 cherry picked Maverick Charts of the week say 10,000 words or more = the ‘How’!

Table of contents = the ‘What’! Executed in a succinct manner with the aim of a high density of ideas, because the best writing respects the reader’s time:

📊 Maverick Charts: Amazon VS Walmart, Retail Sales & Banks

📊 Bonus: Investment Themes by Decades

Objective: both data-driven insights + valuable food for thought = the ‘Why’!

📊 Maverick Charts: Amazon VS Walmart, Retail Sales & Banks

1. Valuation in Retail Sales diverging — Walmart (WMT) bricks & mortar with 82% in-store sales & 18% online VS Amazon (AMZN) with 95% online & 5% in-store):

👉 Walmart with a bonkers 45.8x forward P/E as it hit $1 trillion market capitalisation — also now trading at 3x its average (pre-2024) EV/EBIT multiple and 65x P/FCF for a business that grew revenues less than 4% CAGR for the last decade

👉 Amazon with a colling 27.4x forward P/E

Quite a divergence, isn’t it? The big question: will these lines cross again? Yes …

2. Let’s check Revenues, quarterly since 1996 for a 30-years span :

👉 25 years ago: Walmart revenue 47x larger than Amazon

👉 20 years ago: Walmart revenue 25x larger than Amazon

👉 15 years ago: Walmart revenue 8x larger than Amazon

👉 10 years ago: Walmart revenue 3x larger than Amazon

These days, specifically since Q3 2025: Amazon revenue > Walmart revenue, Amazon with materially bigger revenues: $213 vs $179 billion!

Amazon was and is not just scaling, but mostly building optionality, and that compounds beautifully across time, hence nowadays more Revenue sources!

👉 Amazon Web Services (AWS) is a monster way beyond their retail sales: around 69% of profits coming from it

👉 $129 billion revenue over the last 12 months was higher than the revenue of 469 companies in the S&P 500 … let that one sink in!

👉 simply put, AWS went from side project to the core profit engine

👉 then there is advertising, subscriptions, 3P Seller Services, all high margin!

3. Retail Sales — Online vs In-Store sales as overall sector dynamics:

👉 E-Commerce Retail Sales as a % of Total Sales is quite on a trend since 1999

👉 currently at just 15.8%, way more room to capture more sales via the online selling

4. Wondering how are Retail Sales overall doing, aka the Consumer, aka ‘MainStreet’?

👉 up & up with the occasional bigger or smaller recession dips: +0.6% from the previous month for a $635.65 billion total

👉 never bet against for too long against the U.S. Consumer spending and overall entrepreneurship spirit and risk taking

5. From ‘Main Street’ to ‘Wall-Street’, meaning from Retail Sales to mighty Banks:

👉 valuations on the rise via the Price/Tangible Book Value (TBV)

• Morgan Stanley (MS) = 3.7x

• JP Morgan (JPM) = 3.0x

• Goldman Sachs (GS) = 2.7x

• Bank of America (BAC) = 2.0x

• Citi (C) = 1.3x

👉 MS at 3.7x & JPM at 3.0x are quite some …

👉 some people hate banks (partly deserved, especially for some aspects/culture), yet one does NOT want weak banks in any economy … just a casual reminder, a lot of the economy / assets sits on the balance sheet of banks

Overall, good signs also from the banking sector!

Among others, working these days also on a JP Morgan mini deep dive into their Corporate Finance actions: buybacks, dividends, lending, valuation — stay tuned!

✍️ J.P. Morgan (JPM): Buybacks, Price/Book, Dividends, ALM = Maverick Special #10

You can read all the previous Maverick Special reports here.

📊 Bonus: Investment Themes by Decades 📊

6. Investment Themes by Decades & their Returns!

👉 Nifty 50 until 1970 = 645%

👉 EM & Commodities until 1980 = 1,259%

👉 Japanese Stocks until 1990 = 527%

👉 U.S. Tech until 2000 = 795%

👉 EM & Commodities 2.0 until 2010 = 381%

👉 U.S. Tech 2.0 until 2020 = 737%

👉 current U.S. American Tech 3.0 with AI = 2,868%

Food for thought … thoughts?

One of my next Maverick Special research reports covers the big AI question:

✍️ Is AI in Bubbly Territory? Maverick Special #10

As well, on the AI CAPEX big cycle we are having currently I am working on 2 Maverick proprietary indicators/indices that would capture the 2 key aspects:

✍️ AI ROI on CAPEX (a quantitative objective gauge)

✍️ AI Sentiment (a qualitative, mood gauge)

Sentiment is very high and investments have gone parabolic in the AI space, hence:

• a rigorous oversight of capital conversion efficiency is necessary to gauge the AI ecosystem’s capacity for sustained growth and ability to translate all that into corporate financial returns

• similarly, for the overall economy, it’s growth and potential going forward

Both the qualitative and quantitative gauges are essential to map the current trend and cycle position, allowing us to forecast the eventual stabilization, subsequent market correction (shakeout), and the identification of long-term sustainable winners.

Maverick Charts 56th edition done, 5 key charts with many insights + 1 Bonus!

You can check all the previous 55 editions in the Maverick Charts section!

Mission accomplished for me if the following resonates with you:

• ‘Hmm I never thought it that way’, ‘now that chart said a whole lot’, ‘now that chart was really interesting’, ‘now that is something new’, ‘now I got it!’, ‘you managed to turn something complex into something actually simple’

• hence, if you got to see something differently, my approach gave you a different angle, it did help you connect your key dots, then here we all do well!

Research is NOT behind a paywall and NO pesky ads here unlike most other places!

Did you enjoy this finding it interesting, saving you time and with valuable insights?

If yes, you can support Independent Investment and Economic Research with a Realist-Optimist mindset via the following 3 options:

1. ‘Buy me a Book, Coffee or Data’ which are the tools through which the research is done and delivered straight to your inbox!

Buy me a Book, Coffee or Data

2. PayPal, the classic donation/tip option:

PayPal

3. Pledge for a future Premium Research subscription, to be specific introducing “I-RAAS” = Independent Research As A Service

• you will be informed in advance both when the Premium Offering will go live, and what it will consists of along its cadence & structure + you can cancel anytime

• best part = you will get the best introductory pricing, it will never be cheaper

Subscribe now

That’ll definitely support bringing both the current + future ‘Maverick-esque’ research: from a single individual … not a corporate, bank, fund, click-baity media or so … !

Like this, big positive externalities become the name of the game, and we all benefit!

Have a great day! And never forget, keep compounding: family, friends, hobbies, community, work, independence, capital, knowledge, research and mindset!

With respect,

Your Maverick 👋 🤝

P.S. sharing around with like-minded people + hitting the 🔄 & ❤️ buttons = great!

10 cherry picked Maverick Charts of the week say 10,000 words or more = the ‘How’!

Table of contents = the ‘What’! Executed in a succinct manner with the aim of a high density of ideas, because the best writing respects the reader’s time:

📊 Maverick Charts: U.S. Real GDP growth, Economic Policy Uncertainty & Spreads

📊 Bonus: Tracking AI’s Contribution to GDP Growth

Objective: both data-driven insights + valuable food for thought = the ‘Why’!

📊 Maverick Charts: U.S. Real GDP growth, Economic Policy Uncertainty & Spreads

1-3) U.S. Real GDP growth via Atlanta FED + New York FED latest nowcast models:

👉 +4.2% in Q4 2025 via the Atlanta FED (chart 1), way above the 0.9% consensus

👉 +2.74% in Q4 2025 via the New York FED model (chart 2)

👉 +2.73% in Q1 2026 via the New York FED model (chart 3)

Overall, very good readings in my opinion.

Key note — New York FED nowcast model is superior to the Atlanta FED one:

• NY FED measures the broad strength of the economy, it smoothest noise for trend insights, hence suiting macro strength assessment

• Altanta FED is more accounting based, and reacts more sharply to individual releases, hence suiting more precise mechanics

4. Economic Policy Uncertainty = Improving (EPU vs Spreads)

Chart = U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU, blue) & U.S. Investment Grade (IG) Corporate Bonds Spread (green), Recessions (grey) = highlights a historical correlation between economic policy uncertainty and bond spreads, with synchronized peaks during financial crises and volatile periods

👉 they are disconnected, and as I was mentioning often last year, in particular in April 2025 during the Trade War 2.0:

• things are still good, definitely no need to panic, geopolitical risk premium is actually to be harvested also this time around, and so it happened

• as long as ‘the green line’ (aka spreads) do not move wildly, things are fine

👉 from a peak of 568, EPU is way cooler now at 339 — spreads at a ultra 74 b.p. low

👉 Policy Uncertainty ≠ Policy Outcome (more likely = quite a circus or silly show)

In case you missed that key research at that key time, one that was inviting for calm and coolness, instead of chaos driven by spooky headlines, there you go:

✍️ Disconnected - Economic Policy Uncertainty & Corporate Bonds Spread (IG & HY)

5. Complementary, the same chart but with the more sensitive and responsive to all economic conditions, the U.S. High Yield (HY) Corporate Bonds Spread:

👉 at 285 b.p., naturally a bigger spread, but the same behaviour and message

Way more via my U.S. economy deep dive for both Top-down & Bottom-up approaches, essentially connecting the Macro-Finance bridge also:

✍️ The State of the U.S. Economy in 75 Charts

The report breaks down the U.S. economy and ultimately aims to answer two of the biggest questions in Finance and Economics:

“What is the State of the U.S. Economy?“

“What is the Probability of a Recession?”

📊 Bonus: Tracking AI’s Contribution to GDP Growth 📊

AI is the new kind in town, yet how about checking its contribution to GDP growth?

1-4. Four key Charts via St. Louis FED showing how the major AI-related investment categories have contributed to real GDP growth over time:

1) Investments in Information Processing Equipment (chart 1) +

2) Investments in Software (chart 2) +

3) Investments in R&D (chart 3) +

4) Investments in Data Centers (chart 4)

= combined AI categories contributed 0.97% to real GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2025 = these categories made up 39% of total GDP growth (vs 28% in 2000)

👉 has surpassed the contribution of IT components made during the dot-com boom, both in levels and as a share of GDP

👉 firms continue integrating AI into their operations and building the infrastructure required to support it, these categories are likely to remain significant drivers of investment well into 2026 and beyond

5. Complementary, what about AI & Productivity?

Connecting the AI thematic with the Real Economy via a historical chart from 1894 on the U.S. business sector labor productivity:

👉 early industry gains drove the largest productivity booms ...

👉 current productivity (the base) is still pretty low ... way more to come …

👉 hence, is AI the next productivity train everybody embarks on? Food for thought …

👉 will there be job displacements? yes, just like before — will it be more and pose big societal social issues? That is to be covered in the future via Special reports!

One of my next Maverick Special research reports covers the big AI question:

✍️ Is AI in Bubbly Territory? Maverick Special #10

As well, on the AI CAPEX big cycle we are having currently I am working on 2 Maverick proprietary indicators/indices that would capture the 2 key aspects:

✍️ AI ROI on CAPEX (a quantitative objective gauge)

✍️ AI Sentiment (a qualitative, mood gauge)

Sentiment is very high and investments have gone parabolic in the AI space, hence:

• a rigorous oversight of capital conversion efficiency is necessary to gauge the AI ecosystem’s capacity for sustained growth and ability to translate all that into corporate financial returns

• similarly, for the overall economy, it’s growth and potential going forward

Both the qualitative and quantitative gauges are essential to map the current trend and cycle position, allowing us to forecast the eventual stabilization, subsequent market correction (shakeout), and the identification of long-term sustainable winners.

Maverick Charts 55th edition done, 5 key charts with many insights + 5 Bonus!

You can check all the previous 54 editions in the Maverick Charts section!

Mission accomplished for me if the following resonates with you:

• ‘Hmm I never thought it that way’, ‘now that chart said a whole lot’, ‘now that chart was really interesting’, ‘now that is something new’, ‘now I got it!’, ‘you managed to turn something complex into something actually simple’

• hence, if you got to see something differently, my approach gave you a different angle, it did help you connect your key dots, then here we all do well!

Research is NOT behind a paywall and NO pesky ads here unlike most other places!

Did you enjoy this finding it interesting, saving you time and with valuable insights?

If yes, you can support Independent Investment and Economic Research with a Realist-Optimist mindset via the following 3 options:

1. ‘Buy me a Book, Coffee or Data’ which are the tools through which the research is done and delivered straight to your inbox!

Buy me a Book, Coffee or Data

2. PayPal, the classic donation/tip option:

PayPal

3. Pledge for a future Premium Research subscription, to be specific introducing “I-RAAS” = Independent Research As A Service

• you will be informed in advance both when the Premium Offering will go live, and what it will consists of along its cadence & structure + you can cancel anytime

• best part = you will get the best introductory pricing, it will never be cheaper

Subscribe now

That’ll definitely support bringing both the current + future ‘Maverick-esque’ research: from a single individual … not a corporate, bank, fund, click-baity media or so … !

Like this, big positive externalities become the name of the game, and we all benefit!

Have a great day! And never forget, keep compounding: family, friends, hobbies, community, work, independence, capital, knowledge, research and mindset!

With respect,

Your Maverick 👋 🤝

P.S. sharing around with like-minded people + hitting the 🔄 & ❤️ buttons = great!

15 cherry picked Maverick Charts of the week say 10,000 words or more = the ‘How’!

Table of contents = the ‘What’! Executed in a succinct manner with the aim of a high density of ideas, because the best writing respects the reader’s time:

📊 Maverick Charts: World Stocks Valuations, S&P 500 Valuation & Profitability

📊 Bonus: Palantir (PLTR)

Objective: both data-driven insights + valuable food for thought = the ‘Why’!

📊 Maverick Charts: World Stocks Valuations, S&P 500 Valuation & Profitability

In a Top-Down fashion, starting with World Stocks by countries and sectors, then the major U.S. Indices, followed by more nuances on the mighty S&P 500 index and its sectors — then connecting it with the fundamentals: profitability and earnings!

1. World Stocks Valuations by countries & sectors, forward P/E, chart=10,000 words!

👉 U.S. with Growth, IT & Industrials = the ‘pricey’ chaps

👉 U.K. with Value, Energy and Financials = the ‘cheap’ chaps

2. U.S. Valuations by indices via forward P/E relative to 20-year distributions:

👉 S&P 500 = 22x and top of the 20-year range, and Nasdaq = 27x and close to the range 20-year range = ‘pricey’

👉 S&P 500 equal-weight = 17x, and Midcap = 16x = more ‘decent’

3. S&P 500 Forward P/E complementary note:

👉 we are now very close to the +2 Standard Deviations (red) which equates to 23.7x

4. S&P 500 11 Sectors Valuations via forward P/E relative to historical 10 & 30-years:

👉 from 16x for Financials to 29x for Consumer Discretionary

👉 relative to history it is a very mixed bag: note Industrials on the ‘high’ end, while Real Estate on the ‘low’ end

5. S&P 500 Free Cash Flow (FCF) yield wise:

👉 2.57% now, very close to the -2 Standard Deviations (red) which equates to 2.42%

6. Shiller CAPE at 40 = not far from a historical all-time high!

👉 Valuation regimes wise, statistical evidence points to a regime shift toward higher valuations = U.S. stocks have been in a ‘high’ valuation regime since January 1992 (sole interruption during the 2007-2009 GFC)

7. Valuations shifted structurally higher over recent decades / since WW2

👉 CAPE tells us that we are way above both post-2002 (26) and pre-1992 median (14)

8. S&P 500: Valuation vs Profitability, the both surprising head scratcher one, and the key food for thought chart going forward — by periods/regimes, trend line and statistical bands +/- 1 SD via forward P/E ratio and forward Net Margin:

👉 2025-present (orange) with a very high profitability environment ...

👉 22x forward P/E multiple ‘justified’ at least partly or majority one can say = the index is more concentrated in the mega tech names, but overall a higher quality index than 10-20 years ago ...

9. In terms of the actual/realised current Net Profit Margins (NPM):

👉 at 13.2% it will likely mark the highest NPM reported since 2009

👉 current record (going back to 2009) = 13.1%, which occurred in the previous quarter

10. Q4 Earnings & Revenue scorecard (fresh as of Jan 30th) with 166 companies in:

👉 75% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 65% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise

👉 Earnings growth +13.4% = solid! And if it stays above 10% (very likely), it will mark the 5th consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth

👉 Revenue growth +7.6% (solid also ...)

👉 Guidance for Q1 2026: 7 S&P 500 companies have issued negative EPS guidance and 17 issued positive EPS guidance

N.B. way more via my quarterly recurrent two distinct S&P 500 reports & materially improved in all areas: structure, flow, insights and special metrics you rarely see!

✍️ S&P 500 Report: Valuation, Fundamentals, Special Metrics & Leading Indicators

✍️ S&P 500 Report: Performance, Sentiment, Seasonality, Technical Analysis

The reports aim to break down the key question:

“Where are we, what are the key drivers, what are the technicals saying, how is the Sentiment?

“Is the stock market = highly undervalued (very cheap), undervalued (cheap), fairly valued, overvalued (expensive), or highly overvalued (very expensive)?”

📊 Bonus: Palantir (PLTR) 📊

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) reported yesterday great Q4 results:

Growth rates:

• Government Revenue: +66%

• Commercial Revenue: +137%

• Customer Count: +34%

• Adjusted EPS: +243%

• Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO): +143%

• Net Dollar Retention Rate: 139%

Stock reacted +7.2% after hours yesterday, and +5.77% today heading into the closing.

Let’s get visual now with selected fundamentals:

1. Revenue:

👉 $1.4 billion for the quarter = super solid!

👉 Business is scaling very well, especially in the last 3 years ramping up!

2. Operating Income:

👉 $575 million for the quarter = super solid also, confirming the scaling!

3. Adjusted Operating Margin & Revenue Growth:

👉 Palantir a huge outlier with a 127% & the only one inside the ‘Rule of 120 Frontier’

4. Stock-Based Compensation (SBC):

👉 $196 million, it’s not high not low given that the business is scaling nicely

5. The big big question is VALUATION as during waves, the stock is not the business & the business is not the stock!

S&P 500 top 5 by Price/Sales multiple - guess #1? Palantir = drum rollllls ... 82.7x !!!

👉 = 2.75x greater than the 2nd highest P/S ratio in the S&P 500 which belongs to Texas Pacific Land (TPL) at 30.1x

👉 = 3.3x greater than the 3rd highest P/S ratio in the S&P 500 which belongs to AppLovin (APP) at 25.2x

👉 = 3.50x greater than the 4th highest P/S ratio in the S&P 500 which belongs to Broadcom (AVGO) at 23.6x

👉 = 3.53x greater than the 5th highest P/S ratio in the S&P 500 which belongs to Nvidia (NVDA) at 23.6x

Let that one sink in & bring the sink if you wish 😉!

Overall, I think Palantir is a great business, will do well, but the valuation is way too high now for me. I still believe it is very dependent on the market (beta).

👉 when the market will correct 20%, Palantir stock likely dropping 40-50%

👉 when the market will correct 30%, Palantir stock likely dropping 60-70%

Maverick idea: 2027-2028 Long Puts (to hedge or speculate) are now a good idea!

Maverick Charts 54th edition done, 10 key charts with many insights + 5 Bonus!

You can check all the previous 53 editions in the Maverick Charts section!

Mission accomplished for me if the following resonates with you:

• ‘Hmm I never thought it that way’, ‘now that chart said a whole lot’, ‘now that chart was really interesting’, ‘now that is something new’, ‘now I got it!’, ‘you managed to turn something complex into something actually simple’

• hence, if you got to see something differently, my approach gave you a different angle, it did help you connect your key dots, then here we all do well!

Research is NOT behind a paywall and NO pesky ads here unlike most other places!

Did you enjoy this finding it interesting, saving you time and with valuable insights?

If yes, you can support Independent Investment and Economic Research with a Realist-Optimist mindset via the following 3 options:

1. ‘Buy me a Book, Coffee or Data’ which are the tools through which the research is done and delivered straight to your inbox!

Buy me a Book, Coffee or Data

2. PayPal, the classic donation/tip option:

PayPal

3. Pledge for a future Premium Research subscription, to be specific introducing “I-RAAS” = Independent Research As A Service

• you will be informed in advance both when the Premium Offering will go live, and what it will consists of along its cadence & structure + you can cancel anytime

• best part = you will get the best introductory pricing, it will never be cheaper

Subscribe now

That’ll definitely support bringing both the current + future ‘Maverick-esque’ research: from a single individual … not a corporate, bank, fund, click-baity media or so … !

Like this, big positive externalities become the name of the game, and we all benefit!

Have a great day! And never forget, keep compounding: family, friends, hobbies, community, work, independence, capital, knowledge, research and mindset!

With respect,

Your Maverick 👋 🤝

P.S. sharing around with like-minded people + hitting the 🔄 & ❤️ buttons = great!

first of all, have a great 2026 with many accomplishments, personal and professional!

Keep compounding: family, friends, hobbies, community, work, independence, capital, knowledge, research and mindset!

The U.S. economy enters 2026 with solid growth, stocks at all-time highs, broadening profit drivers, big investments, a strong consumer, and a Monetary and Fiscal policy mix that remains supportive for stocks.

Hence, time for a forward looking view with my 2026 Top 25 Maverick Predictions!

Before proceeding further, in case you missed the 2025 review, I highly recommend it as it sets the stage for this 2026 outlook, hence a solid grounding for a 2026 clean state!

✍️ 2025 Top 50 Maverick Charts! The Year in Independent Review!

Next year, holding myself accountable (Skin In The Game), I’ll review the predictions, and present an overview with the results. Grading system: 0.5 points for getting the predictions directionally right, 1 point for getting both the direction & the level right.

Table of contents = the ‘What’! Executed in a succinct manner with the aim of a high density of ideas, because the best writing respects the reader’s time!

👍 Predictions 101: how they are powerful and useful — even when proven wrong

👍 Predictions 102: the easiest job in the world = the post fact predictions “expert”

📊 Equities: S&P 500, Berkshire, Nvidia, Palantir, RobinHood, UBS, Real Estate

📊 Macro & Fixed Income: Jobs, Inflation, Yield Curve, Credit Spreads, MMFs

📊 Currencies & Commodities: USD, CHF, Gold, Silver, Copper

📊 Crypto: Bitcoin & MicroStrategy

📊 Thematics: AI, Trade War, Geopolitics

📊 Vice of The Year: Betting Markets and Insider Trading

👍 Bonus: 2026 Outlook — Strengths & Tailwinds VS Threats & Headwinds

👍 Incoming Maverick-esque Independent Investment and Economic Research

Subscribe now

Predictions 101 & 102 before anything, in order to clear up key confusions about them, setting up expectations and also clearly outline how and why they are useful!

👍 Predictions 101: how and why they are powerful and useful, and both if I get them right and in case wrong:

1) Building Conviction: as the future unfolds, new information shows up which makes our initial case stronger and stronger by validating our analysis and assumptions, hence helps acting consistently and committing to the long term

“A-Ha” moments where we go like: “Oh yes, we are so on the right track with this one!”

2) Risk Management: with new information becoming available, some of our initial thesis are becoming more and more clear that they are wrong, hence we can abort

“Oh, this is not going into our foreseen direction, time to abord mission and simply move on!”

Therefore, predictions are both a Risk Management and a Financial Returns tool coupled with deeper know how and a solid overall framework — I bet you did not see that one coming!

Overall, the value is in the process, hence even if I get many wrong = still valuable! Other than that, just like everybody else, I do not have next years’ Wall-Street Journal on my desk … ahead of time to know for sure how things will play out! If anybody knows somebody that gets that, just please email me 😉!

👍 Predictions 102: the easiest job in the world = the post fact predictions ‘expert’

Predictions = a “shit*y business” in general because when:

• you get them wrong: there will always be “experts” after the fact to pinpoint how wrong you were, some even remind you after years — yet if you ask them how many they got right, silence: most do not even dare to make any predictions given ego, lack of forethought, scared to be wrong and be ridiculed

• you get them right: many would say you got lucky, or all the events leading to the prediction coming true will make the prediction less bold, and/or ‘easy’ to have that one figured out before the fact!

This is usually the view from folks that do not understand how predictions are useful, those afraid to put themselves out there, without much understanding in the first place, prisoners of the past, the pessimists, the cynical types and associates.

Then too many also have one of the easiest ‘jobs’ on planet earth: calling out others for being wrong after the fact … a bit like “armchair experts” watching sports and saying after the game how wrong was X player, or the coach, or the weather, or the fans … .

Funnily enough, besides politics, also in the corporate/banking world (across countries), I noticed (too) many people making great careers with the behaviours above — some ecosystems signal to me that humans are quite strange species rewarding these kind of people, isn’t it? Funny because it is (too) often true? 😉

You the audience are high quality people, many with decades of experience, and I am confident you have seen this kind of behaviours here or there. It is good to be aware, yet we can only focus on what we control, and from there move forward with a Realist-Optimist mindset. Everything else is just noise, wasted time & rabbit holes!

Mavericks are built differently, and with Skin In The Game, DO-ing versus TALK-ing we all move forward — the world has too many talkers, doesn’t it? 😉

‘Bonus’ from my side = Independent Thinking = Independent Research = unfiltered unbiased non-partisan coverage which is key nowadays! Common sense is sometimes not so common, conflicts of interest are too common, hence the true edge & hedge is Independent Investment & Economic Research for the win! In case you missed it:

✍️ Why Independent Investment and Economic Research = Paramount Nowadays!

= no bosses, no interferences of any kind to control the narrative, not paid to say what somebody wants or not say what somebody doesn’t want, no fear to speak out, no self-censorship, unflinchingly freedom of thinking for the win!

Together we all benefit as truth is born from debate “In disputando veritas gignitur!”.

“If something is nonsense, you say it and say it loud. You will be harmed a little but will be antifragile — in the long run people who need to trust you will trust you!” Nassim Taleb

And now time to start the spicy, juicy and tricky Maverick Predictions!

📊 Equities

1. S&P 500 the mighty ‘market’ index:

👉 to register one or more -15% drawdowns — I would not be surprised even about a 20%-25% drop, hence a bear market!

👉 to be sure, I am not saying the S&P 500 will have a bad/negative year — in 2025 the drawdown in April was 19%, yet the index ended the year with a great 17.72%!

2. 👉 to end the year with a higher volatility than in 2025, meaning above 14.5 (VIX)

3. 👉 S&P 500 will likely underperform the Rest of The World (RoW)

• S&P 500 17.72% in 2025 vs ACWI ex-US (ACWX) a whooping 32.59%

S&P 500 developments in terms of both performance & valuation (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) will be covered extensively via the quarterly 2 reports which are materially improved in all areas: structure, insights & special metrics you rarely see!

✍️ S&P 500 Report: Valuation, Fundamentals, Special Metrics & Leading Indicators

✍️ S&P 500 Report: Performance, Sentiment, Seasonality, Technical Analysis

Subscribe now

4. Buffet’s Berkshire (BRK-B) cash position:

👉 to reach $425 billion from the current $382 billion — Cash Stash Away Baby!

5. Nvidia (NVDA):

👉 to register a +20% drawdown (strong case for even 25-30%) — if one likes the stock now, wouldn’t they like it more after a 25% or bigger drawdown?

6. Palantir (PLTR):

👉 to register one or even more +25% drawdowns (strong case for even 30-35%) — if one likes the stock now, wouldn’t they like it more after a 25% or bigger drawdown?

👉 it is always more tricky to go for a drop in stock price because if the market overall does fine and goes higher, it carries basically most stocks also regardless of valuation

Valuation rare and fun fact via the S&P 500 Top 5 by Price/Sales (LTM) multiple:

👉 Palantir = drum rollllls ... 108x !!!

👉 = 3.25x greater than the 2nd highest P/S ratio in the S&P 500 which belongs to AppLovin (APP) at 33x

👉 = 4x greater than the 3rd highest P/S ratio in the S&P 500 which belongs to Texas Pacific Land (TPL) at 27x

Let that one sink in & bring the sink if you wish 😉!

It is Sales, not even Earnings! Hence, a sexy business, but too sexy of a stock now!

N.B. during waves, the stock is not the business and the business is not the stock!

7. RobinHood (HOOD):

👉 to register a +30% drawdown (strong case for even 35-40%)

8. UBS Group AG (UBS) the mighty Swiss universal bank:

👉 will trade again at 2x Price/Book from 1.8x now — last time it happened in 2010!

👉 this will be tricky as it would imply the stock to go up a further 15-25% + banks are very hard to get right — but willing to take this one regardless!

9. Real Estate sector:

👉 to have a better 2026 than 2025 when it lagged massively with just a +3.24% (VNQ)

📊 Macro & Fixed Income

10. Labor Market when it comes to Job Openings VS Unemployed People:

👉 from a ‘tight’ labor market between 2021-2023, 2024 and 2025 made it for a more balanced labor market

👉 2026 will be a year where the labor market will likely become more ‘loose’ = more unemployed people than job openings

👉 $7.146 million job openings VS $7.831 unemployed people, hence a 685k deficit

Implications of a cooling labor market:

• lower wages growth, hence helping to cool off inflation (wages are a “sticky’ variable for inflation)

• on the other side, it will benefit further corporate America margins and profitability

11. Inflation = the hot topic of the last years, what is going on there? A Maverick chart with 110 years of Inflation rate (CPI YoY%), a very long series!

👉 2.7% now, it’ll likely stay between 2.5% and 3% in 2026 = not too hot, not too cold!

👉 3.3% average, we have been now been below that level for 18 straight months

12. U.S. Yield Curve (YC): “mighty curvy curve, how will you behave in 2026?” I ask because you are connecting monetary policy, the bond market, with the economy overall and the stock market via the S&P 500 = Macro-Finance!

👉 the Yield Curve will keep un-inverting / steepening, and end up higher than 0.5%

13. Credit Spreads:

• both Investment Grade (IG) and High-Yield (HY) = quite ‘Perfect World’ tight!

• in 2026 likely to widen and end the year higher than 279 b.p (HY) and 79 b.p. (IG)

14. Money Market Funds (MMF):

👉 Total assets to go above $8 trillion from the current $7.48 trillion

15. 👉 Retail assets to go above $2.4 trillion from the current $2.25 trillion

Macro wise, way more via my improved U.S. Economy deep dive — and that for both Top-down & Bottom-up approaches, connecting the Macro-Finance bridge:

✍️ The State of the U.S. Economy in 75 Charts

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📊 Currencies & Commodities

16. U.S. Dollar, the mighty USD:

👉 after a 9.38% drop in 2025, hence with one of the worst years in decades among major currencies, to continue depreciating in 2026

17. The Mighty Swissie Swiss Franc (CHF):

👉 on the other side and after a great 2025, the Swiss Franc to keep appreciating against most currency majors!

18. Gold

👉 to break above the 5,000 threshold, hence a minimum further 12% increase — and that after the whooping 78% in 2025

19. Silver:

👉 to drop below 60 from 87.50, hence a minimum 31% drop!

20. Copper, ‘Dr. Copper’:

👉 to cool-off also from 5.97 and drop below 5.25, hence a minimum 12% decrease

📊 Crypto

21. MicroStrategy (MSTR) & Bitcoin (BTC):

👉 after a massive 66.69% drawdown (which I did call way before it happened), the stock will drop lower in 2026 — from the 167.79 current price

👉 medium-long term (2027-2028) I see it below 100, and below 50 later

👉 nonetheless, tricky to bet against the Bitcoin crowd as all it takes is some good sentiment and another crypto bull run — hence even MicroStrategy could run up again and go above 200, 300, or even 400

👉 MicroStrategy has been diluting shareholders by issuing shares like there is no tomorrow: +46% in the last year alone, +230% in the last 5 years!

N.B. I still find it very strange that investors are buying the share issuances, and especially their debt/bonds — but hey, with great marketing (quasi or outright lies) and getting rich quick ‘guidance’, everything is possible, isn’t it?

22. Bitcoin:

👉 analogous, it will be down for the year below $90,000 from 93,469 now

👉 fun fact: check below the historical drawdowns and notice how often they reach even a crazy -80% — we can debate what the Bitcoin features are, what is the outlook, but given those heavy and often drawdowns, how can one call it a ‘store of value’?

N.B. when an asset is down 80%, a reminder: it needs a 400% increase to break even and return to its original value — I don’t make the rules, the math is the math 😉

Thematics:

23. 📊 AI

👉 U.S. Data Centers construction spending = to keep going up

👉 AI chatter: mentioned during earnings calls in the S&P 500 = even more

👉 AI LLMs going IPO, at least one of them - likely this will happen in 2027, but willing to be wrong early this year

24. 📊 Trade War

👉 topic will likely continue to fade away, hence reduced intensity and importance

25. 📊 Geopolitics

👉 to continue being elevated, yet not much importance to the markets just like in the last years — hence, the opportunity to harvest geopolitical risk premia

26. 📊 Vice of The Year: Betting Markets and Insider Trading

Online betting markets bigger with more and more people, especially young demographics which are the easiest target:

👉 less patience, less of a burn to grind out in their careers, yet with a mindset of grinding for months and years ‘learning’ stocks day trading and crypto trading (which is fool’s gold)

👉 social media a core role: people constantly thinking they are left behind, and others have it better (which is a weird mix of silly, superficial, toxic and untrue)

👉 just like in Casino gambling, the house never losses in online betting markets — it is a place where definitely “people have a negative edge“, yet gambling is seen as their salvation — in Economists’ terms, this is the “convex utility in losses“: when already losing, one prefers a small chance of getting back to even over a certain moderate loss. It's the same mindset & reason people double down at blackjack when they're behind!

“What is the solution Mav?“ Well, there is no solution, but I know the future 2 outcomes as the classic in advance well-intentioned advice falls on deaf ears!

• people will take the losses, most will have it as a lesson learned, regroup, get back to classical hard work and investing which works

• some will ‘learn’ that the ‘system is rigged’, go down into the online rabbit holes, become keyboard warriors, toxic in society, and frustrated will vote ‘accordingly’

More insider trading cases with bigger online betting markets:

👉 we already have quite some insider trading cases or well, highly suspicious cases

👉 in a way, this can be spined positively: insider information held and traded by the insiders & gatekeepers, will be now available to the public as wild outlier public bets — decentralized inside information for the masses: everybody can go online and see the odds and the volumes related to various bets, hence spotting patterns, weird timing, as outliers can signal inside information is behind the bet

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👍 Bonus: 2026 Outlook — Strengths & Tailwinds VS Threats & Headwinds

Overview table with the key points for 2026, both Bullish and Bearish factors that will shape the year going forward. These key themes will be monitored, analysed & presented as we progress into 2026!

👍 Incoming Maverick-esque Independent Investment and Economic Research

Economy wise, way more via my improved U.S. Economy deep dive — for both Top-down & Bottom-up approaches, connecting the Macro-Finance bridge:

✍️ The State of the U.S. Economy in 75 Charts

Stock market wise, namely the S&P 500 key index, to be covered quarterly via my two S&P 500 distinct reports, and lately materially improved in all areas: structure, flow, insights and special metrics you rarely see!

✍️ S&P 500 Report: Valuation, Fundamentals, Special Metrics & Leading Indicators

✍️ S&P 500 Report: Performance, Sentiment, Seasonality, Technical Analysis

Then the Maverick Special reports covering individual thematics, connecting the Economy with the Stock Market, aka crossing the Macro-Finance bridge. Examples:

✍️ Warren Buffett’s Cash Pile & More ... Stash Away Baby! Berkshire Hathaway Report #2

✍️ Switzerland and the Swiss Franc = Safe Haven

✍️ The Number 1 Feature Any Investment Portfolio Really Needs To Have

✍️ Is the U.S. Stock Market in a Bubble (Part II)

✍️ Market Pockets of Overvaluation, Animal Spirits Behaviour and Bubbly Territory

✍️ Bitcoin & Gold, not Bitcoin VS Gold

✍️ Screening for Stocks that just Switched to Profitability - Maverick Treasure Hunting

✍️ In Defense of Short Selling

✍️ U.S. Public Debt Reduction = Hard but Feasible

Regarding the coverage from the other sections, there you go:

• Full Equity Research = new kid in town, the much awaited single stocks coverage

• Model Portfolios which compound, yet in the same time take care of the downside, sequence risk, diversified, very low fee, passive and easy to implement

• Maverick Equities & Macro Charts of the Week as highlights will continue

• Hedges, Trades and Special Situations for the more active investor

And way more Independent Investment and Economics Research is coming to town!

“In Disputando Veritas Gignitur!” — together we all benefit as truth is born from debate!

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Have a great day! And never forget, keep compounding: family, friends, hobbies, community, work, independence, capital, knowledge, research and mindset!

With respect,

Your Maverick 👋 🤝

are you ready for the New Year’s Eve and have a great start in 2026? I hope so, I am!

Before that, it’s time to review and highlight the 2025 Top 50 Maverick Charts!

There is a lot of value doing and going through this as we set the stage for 2026:

• distinguishing between fundamentals and noise, seeing the "Forest for the Trees"

• understanding the lag-times between policies and future economic reality

• identifying Structural vs. Cyclical Shifts

• strategic “Re-Anchoring” for investors and entrepreneurs of all kinds

• educational value by gaining contextual depth on interconnected events

• historical parallels as memories are surprisingly short in finance: X years from now when policies like Trade Wars or other industry booms (like AI now) come to town, will be a primary source for understanding how the markets and the economy adjusted to the specific variables of this era

• forward looking: shape a 2026 outlook with a solid grounding and fresh views!

In January you will also get my top 2026 predictions which is quite a spicy, juicy and ‘dangerous’ business … 😉! So, let’s let the show begin!

✍️ 2026 Top 25 Maverick Predictions!

50 cherry picked Maverick Charts of the year say 1,000,000 words or more = the ‘How’!

Table of contents = the ‘What’! Executed in a succinct manner with the aim of a high density of ideas, because the best writing respects the reader’s time!

📊 Performance Overview

📊 Equities: S&P 500, Thematic and Single Stocks

📊 Macro & Fixed Income

📊 Currencies & Commodities

📊 Crypto

👍 Bonus: +200,000 views Maverick Tweet of the Year — Nasim Taleb retweet!

Objective: both data-driven insights + valuable food for thought = the ‘Why’!

📊 Performance Overview

1. First of all, how did U.S. Stocks, Bonds, Gold and Bitcoin do in 2025?

👉 S&P 500 (SPY) continuing the big bull market with another great year: +19.03%

👉 Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) similarly with another whooping: +22.63%

👉 SHV (short-term treasury bills 1-year or less, cash proxy): +4.15%

👉 IEF (intermediate treasury notes between 7-10 years): +8.24%

👉 TLT (long-term treasury bonds +20-year maturities): +4.86%

👉 AGG (IG broad maturities: treasuries, corporate, MBS, ABS, municipals): +7.32%

👉 Gold shinning bright as the big outperformer with a mega run: +72.80%

👉 Bitcoin the big laggard: -7.28%

Overall, the vast majority of investors should be very happy with 2025!

More nuances and rationale on these performances will be presented below.

2. below a casual reminder with the exact same chart, but with the 2022 bear market:

👉 except short-term treasury bills with a slight +0.94%, all were down big time!

3 takeaways and reminders on yearly performances:

👉 from my experience, investors when shown these 2 very different years, they appreciate way way more what they have now in a good year — just human nature!

👉 if there is quite a certainty in investing, one is that occasional bad years will not go away: fear & greed will always be present (human nature), hence clean ups and excesses are to be cleared out which is actually good!

👉 additionally, Volatility = Opportunity, and not Risk: recall Buffet’s 2024 letter where he says that while great businesses are very hard to be bought in their entirety (not a problem for us), small fractions of these gems can be purchased very occasionally, and at bargain prices — and this applies basically to any good business/stock out there!

P.S. in 2026 I will start covering in details this kind of businesses

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📊 Equities: S&P 500, Thematic and Individual Names

📊 S&P 500 Performance Ins & Outs

3. S&P 500 with a great +19.03% — what where the key narratives & factors in 2025?

👉 POTUS Trade War 2.0 = which where basically the 3 negative months of the year followed by a sharp rebound and an overall very very good year — with also a positive December, it will mark 8 straight green months = the longest streak since the mighty 10-month streak which ended in January 2018

👉 the vastly untold story of the stock market rally in 2025 = the falling interest rates = lower discount rates/cost of capital = a key and huge variable!

👉 the AI gold rush is on! AI spending bonanza = tech CAPEX spending as % of the aggregate S&P 500 CAPEX spending at 47% = let that one sink in!

4. Volatility & Drawdowns — the big moves caused also by the Trade War 2.0:

👉 Volatility: VIX spiked to 52 and now at 14 now is ending the year below the 19 average for the year

👉 Drawdown: with a maximum of 19%, and a price drop of maximum 15%, it was not far from registering a bear market in April

The volatility caused by the Trade War 2.0 created an interesting acronym named "TACO" = “Trump Always Chickens Out!“ which was an investment strategy in response to Trump’s tariff on and off policies — buying as the market dips when Trump announces steep tariffs on the assumption that he will back off/negotiate his tariff stance, hence the market to rebound.

5. Before the "TACO" trade was even a thing on Wall Street, way earlier I had my original "MATT" = “Maverick Ate The TACO!“ Meaning on the 5th of April (just 3 days after Liberation day from April 2nd) I had my call of the year on the matter:

👉 " I mean at some point Trump will have to negotiate, kick the can down the road, switch to blaming the FED or whomever"

👉 "In any case, for me a good period to collect / harvest geopolitical risk premium"

That was the preview of the playbook which happened right after and you got it: via the typical Maverick-esque fashion, bringing you here key insights via forethought and delivered with clarity, calmness, coolness!

6. Check this one: when we plot all 500 names by returns and holding weight, we see none of our top 10 performers (green quadrant) bear a major weight in the index!

“So, Mav, who is driving the returns in the S&P 500 these days?" Well, for that we need a return attribution analysis to see who brings most of the contribution:

👉 from the +18.23% return in 2025, 10.35% (1,035 b.p. basis points) is driven by the top 12 names below — that translates to more than half, namely 56% of the returns

7. This market concentration is seen nicely also when we compare the performance of the S&P 500 weighted via the SPY ETF with the unweighted RSP ETF:

👉 +18.22% for the SPY (weighted) while note the RSP (unweighted) +11.92%

👉 both great returns no matter how we look at it, though note the concentration which is present, but it is less than 2023 and 2024

8. Value & Growth in 2025 for a styles view:

👉 Growth leading like in 2023 and 2024, but value also doing well this time around which translated to a broadening more healthy rally …

👉 VUG Growth (green) +20.08% while VTV Value (value) with +15.74% = both great!

👉 note that VTV Value did drop way less during the April Trade War 2.0 debacle … remember that one for the next volatility, drawdown and/or general downturn …

9. What about the mighty Magnificent 7 stocks?

👉 +24.9% for the Mag 7 stocks (green)

👉 +16.35% for the S&P 493, hence excluding Mag 7 (orange)

👉 +19.17% for the S&P 500 (blue)

10. What about the S&P 500 Top 10 Performing Stocks, or like they say in Top Gun: “Up There With The Best Of The Best!”

👉 Western Digital (WDC) +296%, Seagate (STX) +234%, Micron (MU) +229%

👉 Robinhood (HOOD) +228%, Newmont (NEM) +186%, Warner Bros (WBD) +172%

👉 Palantir (PLTR) 155%, Lam Research (LRCX) +144%, AppLovin (APP) +125%, KLA Corporation (KLAC) +102%

11. Lastly in terms of performance, zooming out and coupling it with the technicals:

👉 check the S&P 500 bull uptrend in off the COVID low! what a recovery and bounce!

👉 as usual, U.S. equities did in 2025 what they do best: go higher — recall Warren Buffett once famously saying: “Never Bet Against America!” (medium-long term)

👉 on the short term, also because it is America, a lot of things can happen as we saw in Q1 2025 with the POTUS Trade War 2.0 — it could have been worse and longer!

👉 going forward, the question with U.S. equities becomes one of Risk/Reward given where we are now in this sweet trend: at the upper bound!

📊 S&P 500 Valuation

12. Forward P/E ratio — the evolving path in 2025:

👉 = 23.3x now, and we begun 2025 very similarly at 22.6x — with a 19% return! ‘What happened Mav’? It has gone about nowhere in 2025! ‘Why? What’s going on?’

👉 19% very solid 2025 rally with a major factor being the mighty Earnings growth (the ‘E’ denominator in the P/E ratio), hence not a price/multiple expansion this time around (the ‘P’ numerator in the P/E ratio) = a very good development!

👉 note the April Tariff War 2.0 / Liberation day saw a 18.8x P/E bottom as the market was tanking like there is no tomorrow = yet that was actually an opportunity!

👉 as a rule of thumb, every 4-5x fast drop in the forward P/E (15-20% drop in price) is a good buying opportunity, or just a sentiment and algo driven big fast correction

For way more, I will make 2 Maverick Special reports which shall be ‘evergreen’, and serve via being recalled anytime it is needed in the years and decades ahead:

✍️ Big Volatility & Drawdowns = Juicy Returns

✍️ Harvesting Geopolitical Risk Premium Through the Financial Markets and Economic Storms

13. Zooming out via the Forward P/E ratio (last 20 years) — ‘Buy it Low Sell it High’

At a forward P/E of 23.2x now:

👉 = sitting very close to the +2 SD (Standard Deviations) of 23.5x

👉 = 37% higher than the 20 year average of 16.9x

👉 = not far from the 2021 stock market mania levels of 25x

14. Free Cash Flow Yield (Free Cash Flow/Enterprise Value) — ‘Buy it High Sell it Low’

👉 at 2.43%, we are even below the -2 Standard Deviations (SD) of 2.44%

👉 = 33% lower than the 20 year average of 3.6%

P.S. way more on the S&P 500 via the quarterly 2 distinct reports, and lately materially improved in all areas: structure, flow, insights and special metrics you rarely see!

✍️ S&P 500 Report: Valuation, Fundamentals, Special Metrics & Leading Indicators

✍️ S&P 500 Report: Performance, Sentiment, Seasonality, Technical Analysis

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📊 Thematic

15. 'Tech is Taking Over the World Baby!' chart via XLK/SPY, Tech relative to S&P 500:

👉 XLK US tech ETF sitting 2 standard deviations above the mighty S&P 500 SPY

👉 way above the mean, then during 2020 Covid it broke above the +1 Standard Deviation (SD) while since the 2023 ‘AI run’ now even above the +2 SD

👉 while tech today is real, it works, it is an integral part of all sectors of the economy, brings a lot of value (2001 dot-com empty concepts many), it’s hard to ignore the parabolic run lately, and how much future growth is baked into the valuations

16. ‘Semiconductors are Taking Over the World Baby’ chart via SOXX/SPY:

👉 SOXX semis ETF sitting 2 standard deviations above the mighty S&P 500 SPY

👉 way above the mean, then during 2020 Covid it broke above the +1 Standard Deviation (SD) while since the 2023 ‘AI run’ now even above the +2 SD

N.B. I do not compare the tech & semis to some gyzmo volatile empty sector, but to the mighty S&P 500 ... which is not a shabby construct at all, it’s the 11 sectors of corporate America which also derives 40% of revenues from outside the US ... and has performed very well since many many decades (if I would make the comparison with the S&P 500 excluding tech & semis, then the ratio would be even way higher!)

Let that sink in & ... food for thought(s) ... 😉

📊 Single Stocks

17. Buffet’s Berkshire (BRK-B) cash position — Stash Away Baby!

👉 spiked to $382 billion from $167 in 2023 for a 2.28x, and 33% as total assets!

👉 that yielding around $15 billion annually in a risk-free fashion!

👉 contrary to many headlines on the significance of this record cash pile, Buffett is NOT ‘forecasting’ a recession / market crash, he isn’t market timing, he isn’t making a ‘macro’ bet … he said he is not doing that many times! So, ‘what is he doing Mav?’

That will answered and a deeper coverage in the 2nd edition of The Berkshire Report!

✍️ Warren Buffett’s Cash Pile & More ... Stash Away Baby! Berkshire Hathaway Report #2

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18. Nvidia (NVDA) via 2 Maverick charts to make you go 'hmmmmm ...':

👉 the parabolic performance we all know: 3,153% return for a 79% CAGR since 2020!

19. With that incredible outperformance, check the valuation via forward P/E = 27.2x:

👉 it dropped 16.8 points since the launch of ChatGPT!

👉 and way below the 37.3 average, hence a 10.1 points drop

20. From Nvidia AI bro’ to retail non-AI bros, Walmart & Costco valuation via forward P/E:

👉 P/E of 42.5x for Costco and 39.1x for Walmart

👉 that is way higher than the Nvidia 27.2x …

Let that one sink in … bring the sink if you wish … and food for thought for you 😉

21. Musk danced with robots as Tesla shareholders approve a $1 trillion pay packet = largest in corporate history = $0 salary, all performance-based stock grants!

Before the targets for the $1 trillion check, a visual to show how Tesla did so far:

👉 Tesla IPO-ed in 2010 valued at $1.7 billion, and finished the 1st day at $2.2 billion

👉 2025 valued at $1.580 Trillion with a 60% CAGR since the IPO

22. Bonkers pay = bonkers milestones in order to get that $1 trillion pay:

👉 $8.5 trillion market capitalisation target — from $1.4 now!

👉 20 million cars delivered

👉 10 million FSD (Full Self-Driving) active subscriptions

👉 1 million Robo-Taxis into commercial service

👉 1 million humanoid robots

👉 10-year deadline: all targets must be achieved by 2035

👉 Elon’s stake if achieved would go approximately from 15% → 25%!

Let these ones sink in also, I did not see these takes of mine out there:

• $1tn pay for Musk for lifting the market cap by $7.1tn in order to reach $8.5 tn

• = 14% performance fee (total/cumulative by 1/7.1), and NO base fee = way lower than many funds: hedge funds, private banking, VC/PE, mutual funds (Europe) etc

• Maverick’s opinion = that is actually very decent, or even quite cheap! — I mean I personally got to know across time many CEO’s, entrepreneurs, investors, bankers, lawyers that would not move a finger for 14% for 10 years … so yeah …)

• Super Solid Skin In The Game (SS-SITG): Musk must remain as CEO or in an executive role over product and operations for a specific period (at least 7.5 years) for the shares to be fully vested + reputation, legacy & inspirational for so many!

I did tens of thousandths of charts so far at many places and countries: stocks, bonds, macro, commodities, asset management, investor relations, investment banking, strategy, lending, leasing, risk management … charts for bank CEOs that were meeting Ms. Christine Lagarde ... you name it ... nonetheless, I never ever have thought I will make this truly special outlier one on Musk and Tesla! 😉

Why are some criticizing the pay package? It is their own shareholders who said YES for the pay = they can do whatever they want with with their own company & money!

Independent research here for sure, no politics, though a tendency I noticed generally:

👉 socialists angle: ‘crazy, too much, no way, not fair …’

👉 capitalists angle: ‘what targets need to be met?’

How achievable are the targets? Well, definitely ultra ambitious! If met, Musk deserves the trillion, if not met, then not met, hence not given! After all, as I always like to say: ‘you need 100,000 dreamers to make breakthroughs happen!’ So let’s let the people dance, dream and let’s see the achievements coming in, we need innovation!

23. Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) — Oil Baby Oil, Energy Baby Energy!

👉 7.79% buyback yield, +20% for quite a while, 14.18% average in the last 5 years, hence shares outstanding getting lower lower lower ...

👉 dividend yield = 2.3%, increasing dividend payments, 4 years in a row

👉 stock return in the last 5 years? 352% with a whooping 35% CAGR — not a sexy business, not in the headlines, not popular … yet delivering solid energy/oil & returns!

24. Robinhood ‘alpha’ trader vs Robinhood alpha stockholder (HOOD) = why it is bad to be a Robinhood trader, but great to be a Robinhood stockholder:

👉 Robinhood stockholder ringing the cash machine like there is no tomorrow:

• +239% since IPO (July 2021) with a 23.73% CAGR

• +198% last 12 months, and

• +217% in 2025 (sales & net income performing very well lately via direct fees, PFOF & more)

👉 since 2021, typical Robinhood user/trader/investor not even breaking even, and that is as expected of course, at least by me (chart 2)

‘Why this performance gap Mav? It is upside down!’

Simple: the latter (stock) is due to the former (client) … let that one sink in also!

P.S. it’s a bit like MicroStrategy & Bitcoin, and generally with Crypto: bad if you trade it, great if you own of the infrastructure, heads you win tails you win = more trades, more hype, more money (not to mention the bitcoin/crypto pumpers and scammers)!

25. Lululemon (LULU) sexy leggings get tighter and tighter, yet the stock can’t resist the heat (pun intended):

👉 from a $65 billion market cap in December 2023, now at $24.5 billion market cap

👉 shed a remarkable $40 billion in market cap in the last 2 years & a 59% drawdown

👉 nonetheless, stock rebounding in December on the back of the resignation of long-term serving CEO, Calvin McDonald, and as well announcements of activist activity

📊 Macro & Fixed Income

26. U.S. GDP — quarterly data since 2005 to capture well the business cycle:

👉 Q3 2025: +4.3% real growth annualized = strongest growth in two years = above prior quarter's Q2 3.8% increase = growing way above the 2% average since 2005

👉 Q4 2025: +3.0 via the December 23rd GDPNow Altanta FED estimate and +2.1% via the December 26th New York Fed Staff Nowcast = 2.55% average of the two

👉 once the data is out for Q4, hence 2025 overall = a good year in any case!

P.S note the 2007-2009 recession, and also the 2020 Covid stop & go big swing

27. Labor Market not tight anymore — Job Openings VS Unemployed People:

👉 more Unemployed People (red) than Job Openings (green) = quite a contrast since the 2021-2022 job hiring and stock market mania

👉 7.670 million job openings VS 7.831 million unemployed people = as a ratio that is 0.98 from a crazy 2.02 back in 2022

👉 not an ‘employees market’ anymore will likely push down Wage Growth (which is still quite good) which would lower Consumption, but on the other side it will help with inflation (Wage Growth is a “sticky” inflation variable), hence lower interest rates

N.B. Unemployed People and Job Openings ‘matrix’ is a nice monthly visual overview, while I will go deeper with other metrics for more insights & timeliness — until then, as a preview: the labor market is not too tight nor too hot, quite balanced overall

28. A special one now: Business Investment Activity aka ‘core CAPEX’ — it is UP!

👉 New Orders for Non-Defense Capital Goods (excluding aircraft) with a very sharp rebound since the 2020 pandemic, and currently at a high level of $78 billion (also known as ‘core CAPEX’ or simply put ‘Business Investment’ so that you can connect the dots and/or do not get confused with other research or media reports)

👉 while it did slow down a bit in the 2022 economic slowdown and bear market, a very solid rebound since 2024, hence signalling a positive outlook and economic strength in the months to come

The main message behind this indicator:

👉 it reflects very broad trends in Business Investment and Private Sector confidence, both very important for the investment-production-consumption loop

👉 the key insight = purely focused on orders for long-lasting business equipment, and removing large fluctuations from defense and commercial aircraft orders

👉 Core CAPEX is regarded as a key factor driving the economy and one of the leading indictors of Business Activity or Business CAPEX

29. What about Housing & the mighty Consumer? Well connected & stable? For that we look at the Home Equity values compared to the Total Value of Household Real Estate:

👉 Owners’ Equity in Real Estate as a % of Household Real Estate, solid at 72.56%

👉 the longest continuous stretch above 70% since the late 1950s, hence, we have the strongest Consumer-Housing Balance Sheet in 70 years

👉 “But what about affordability for new homeowners Mav?” Well, yes, it is low, but that is another story, and in general, at any given point, it won’t be good for everybody

Maverick’s net takeaway:

1) Housing will NOT take DOWN the Economy which I hear quite a lot these days

2) Owners’ equity in their homes is important via the ‘wealth effect’ which is real: higher confidence, invest more into stocks, higher consumption patterns, HELOC loans etc. In general, Real Estate is a big part of the economy and with its many facets it is quite complex. Commercial Real Estate (CRE) has some issues, and I will offer more dedicated insights in the future.

30. How are Delinquency Rates doing for payment on loans? Overview loan types:

👉 with higher interest rates given the 2021 inflation spike, higher overall

👉 yet not at worrying levels for now, and dropping rates act as more cushion

👉 nonetheless, to be monitored in 2026 …

All this will be covered in 2026 through my quarterly deep dive into the U.S Economy:

✍️ The State of the U.S. Economy in 75 Charts

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31. U.S. Yield Curve (YC): “mighty curvy curve, what are you telling us?” I ask because you are connecting monetary policy, the bond market, with the economy overall and the stock market via the S&P 500 = Macro-Finance!

Yield Curve 10Y-3M (blue) = 0.485% again positive, and un-inverting strongly in 2025! Chart = last 30 years of YC inversions/un-inversions (blue), recession periods (grey), S&P 500 price (green) and S&P 500 drawdowns (red) — all for the famous markets/economics mantra ‘Is This Time Different?’

👉 2022 recession wise: YC inversions most of the time signals an incoming recession, though most recently it gave us the head fake (false signal) in 2022 as the most anticipated recession never came = ‘It Was Different This Time’

👉 2022: stock market wise: though the signal was still partly valid also for the 2022 bear market as the YC was falling fast and became inverted = ‘It Was Not (That) Different This Time Either’

Maverick takeaways:

👉 Recessions wise:

• YC inversions are to be watched for likely incoming tough periods

• note that the exact inversion points are not the real/true signal for an incoming recession, but it’s the un-inversion period coming right after — in other words, it is the steepening post un-inversion that is when things start to happen

• given that the YC is positive again and un-inversion is happening now, technically the YC could still foresee a recession should it go higher / steepen

• on the other side, this inversion & un-inversion has been going on for +3 years which is very atypical — in any case, the current steepening is to be watched!

👉 Stock Bear Markets wise:

• just like Maverick in Top Gun going inverted, it very likely DOES show us the birdie, hence the incoming bear market - fair & nice guy, no? 😉

• each of the past 4 big bear markets since 1995 were preceded by YC inversions or they happened as the YC was dropping fast towards inversion (being negative)

Hence, the Yield Curve is still to be watched both for the economy & stock market!

N.B. there is for sure a lot more about the Yield Curve special topic:

• more yield curve types, context, nuances, other variables, hence still judgement calls to be made on a case by case (regime by regime) basis

• that is why in 2026 I will also do a Maverick Special dedicated report covering: longer history, more key stats, more intricacies, more insights and takeaways

✍️ Yield Curves, Recessions and Bear Markets = a Deep Dive! Maverick Special

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32. Inflation, the hot topic of the last years, what is going on there? A Maverick chart with 110 years of Inflation rate (CPI YoY%), a very long series!

👉 2.9% at the start of 2025 with 2.7% to finish, below the 3.3% long-term average

👉 therefore, with further stabilisation closer to the targeted 2%

👉 inflation chatter is that the FED should change to target closer to 3%, hence if you ask me, if that happens, based on this very long historical average, we should not be that surprised and that big of a deal

33. Inflation Growth vs Level = Wall-Street inflation vs Main-Street inflation visualised! CPI growth (YoY %, blue) and CPI Consumer Price Index level (red):

👉 for the Level of inflation to go Down, we would need a Negative Growth Rate, hence we would need to have deflation (trust me, that is something not too many people really want, or well, they should not want …)

👉 once we get inflation spikes and we are at new higher levels, hence even when the inflation growth rate finally slows down and stabilises, the level/base is and feels to be way higher — it is not ‘linear’ and ‘smooth’ as before the high inflation period!

👉 one cay say, the Level/Base = how most People see and feel inflation, while the Growth rate = how Economists see inflation

Inflation is a very complex phenomenon, hence besides the current growth rate and level with a historical perspective, what about the ins & outs, and most importantly, what about pricing + forward looking metrics and indicators?

All that requires naturally a deeper dive, and most of all, practical implications: myths about inflation, which measures to track, which ones are the best and most reliable, and an outlook for the short term, and as well for the medium-long term.

Hence, I will do a 2-part Maverick Special Report (Macro-Equities lens) covering:

✍️ Inflation - Nuts & Bolts, Ins & Outs!

+ by far the most favorite & requested:

✍️ Inflation: Pricing, Expectations & Leading Indicators!

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34. Interest Rates — Fed Funds Rate & 2-year Treasury Yield:

👉 FED lowered rates 3 times in 2025, and is now in the range of 3.50% to 3.75%

👉 FED signaled a more cautious approach to further easing in 2026, yet the direction and current pricing is for LOWER rates

👉 therefore, with that expect lower Fed Funds Rate and 2-year treasury yields also!

👉 while AI was the big headliner for the big stock market rally, not many told you that a material factor are the falling interest rates = lower discount rates/cost of capital

35. FED Balance Sheet:

👉 a big 26.87% balance sheet reduction since 2022 all-time high, yet note the very small yet important uptick in December — what happened?

👉 on December 10th, the FED stated they “will initiate purchases of shorter-term Treasury securities as needed to maintain an ample supply of reserves” — remarking that “reserve balances have declined to ample levels”

👉 hence, the balance sheet has expanded in the last 2 successive readings

Money Market Funds (MMFs) time!

36. $7.48 trillion Total Assets (blue) = a record = a very solid potential dry powder

Wordplay: “A Trillion Here, a Trillion There, and Pretty Soon You’re Talking Real Monay!“

👉 with interest rates dropping (red), that super liquid cash equivalent has to go somewhere — some say it is not dry powder for stocks, but if one sells a MMF unit and buys with it stocks, what is it then? Via JPM: “...there is more than $7T in MMFs, suggesting plenty of dry powder to buy stocks especially if we do see the Fed cut rates, dropping the return on MMF assets.”

👉 until then, with high(er) interest rates (red), it is normal for MMFs to increase as the Risk Free rate pays a decent level of interest for the 1st time since 2007, namely pre-GFC/Lehman Brothers (2018 & 2019 was also a brief period with some yield)

👉 note also the price change % rolling 1-year: a very high growth with 14.25% now

37. $2.25 trillion Retail Assets (blue) = also a record from Retail

👉 MMFs pay way better pay/yield than bank deposits (CDs)

👉 note also the price change % rolling 1-year: a very high growth with 13.99% now

📊 Currencies & Commodities

38. U.S. Dollar, the mighty USD with quite a bad year:

👉 USD down 9.53% versus the DXY (fixed basket of six major foreign currencies)

👉 USD is basically having one of the worst years in decades among major currencies

39. For a medium-long term investor though, obsessing about the Dollar is not good!

👉 mighty USD has gone nowhere in the last 50 years! At its average these days!

👉 if one is worried about the Dollar, one has 4 options (one of them or a mix):

• own the Swiss Franc (CHF)

• own Swiss bonds and Equities for implied ‘natural’ diversification and hedge!

• own Gold

• hedge it!

40. For a more short-term tactical trader, check the post-GFC bull uptrend:

👉 despite several tests, it continues to hold — rather a rebound from here

Given the Dollar obsession and many calling the end of the Dollar since ages, one day I will do a Maverick Special report on it where I cover many angles & the many myths!

✍️ The Mighty Dollar and its Mighty Myths!

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41. The Mighty Swissie Swiss Franc (CHF) on the other side = currency of the year!

👉 CHF/USD: Swiss Franc keeps doin what it does best - going higher!

👉 +14.9% appreciation for the Swiss Franc versus the Dollar

👉 at 1.2676 trending higher in the multi-decade channel

Investing insights and food for thought:

👉 why aren’t more investors looking into Swiss stocks? Ok, only around +200 listed, but still ... well, no worries, I will cover quite some Swiss stock in the future ...

👉 why? natural FX and cash flow diversifier + neutrality + fiscal discipline + innovation + SNB balance sheet + federalism & more ... ahh + chocolate 🍫

👉 performance wise and also returns expectations, many investors forget to adjust for currency differences — for example:

• the Swiss Market Index (SMI) is +14% in 2025

• the CHF gained 14.9% versus the Dollar in 2025

• for an US investor, once returns are translated into USD terms, returns are way way higher given the USD … simple, but many times forgotten!

Not just against the dollar, but the CHF appreciated against most currency majors!

42. Swiss government bonds:

👉 the 2-year did go negative once again

👉 the 10-year yield kept trending lower and was not far from going negative again

43. Gold, goldie gold, the oldest asset of them all, you shiny yellow metal!

👉 with a +78% in 2025, = the best year since 1979! Note also that it is very rare for both Gold and the S&P 500 to have great runs together!

👉 lately, it seems everybody is digging gold and/or becoming a gold digger? Just pun intended! 😉

👉 joke aside: geopolitics, geopolitical risk premium, fiscal dominance, currency debasement, fiat currency worries, central banks huge buyers, there is a lot going on!

Hence, 2 Maverick Special reports will cover in depth the mighty gold!

✍️ Gold, A Strategic Asset In A Multi-Asset Portfolio

✍️ Bitcoin & Gold, not Bitcoin VS Gold

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Until then, you can check the Maverick Special Situation report from March 2025:

✍️ Maverick Special Situation #6: 🪙 Gold Special Seasonality Pattern

44. It’s not just Gold, but other commodities also having a crazy good year:

👉 Silver +149.83% also the best year since 1979 when it ripped 5x in famous fashion

• Silver is needed in many industrial processes, semiconductors etc, hence not good

• an ounce (31 grams) of silver is worth twice as much as a barrel (159 liters) of Russian crude oil (has only happened once before in 1980) — let that one sink in!

👉 Platinum +136.24%

👉 Palladium +84.04%

👉 Copper +38.68%

These are not good in order to tame inflation and have it anchored in terms of expectations, though I think they will run out of steam rather sooner than later.

When everybody suddenly becomes a precious metals expert, and that coupled with parabolic fast runs up, more likely pointing to a top and/or bubbly behaviours … .

More on that in the future Maverick reports!

45. Zooming out for the last 40 years, they are quite cyclical, isn’t it? Food for thought!

46. Oil, you ‘crude’ oil, the commodities underperformer of 2025!

👉 down -19.1% in 2025, quite surprising many …

47. Gold to Oil ratio, quite a rare Maverick chart — every time there are big moves in Gold and/or in Oil, I like to make the ratio of the two and infer from there various insights and forward looking ideas:

👉 Gold-to-Oil ratio = 74.6, and the classical interpretation when the ratio surges is that of a rather warning signal (grey periods = recessions):

• rising gold prices reflecting growing fear and risk aversion

• while conversely a dropping price in Oil indicating weak demand, aka weak confidence in the global economy

👉 I actually think “It Is Different This Time” and the situation is not that bad: there are different variables at play this time around which will be covered in the future

📊 Crypto

48. One of the biggest disappointments in 2025 is Bitcoin and its so called ‘treasury company’ MicroStrategy( MSTR). The “Bitcoin & MicroStrategy symbiosis“ chart:

👉 Bitcoin -30.39% drawdown

👉 MicroStrategy -66.69% drawdown

👉 complementary, since July: Bitcoin -27%, Strategy -65%

👉 MicroStrategy filed to change its name yet again, new name = Strategy. I wonder why? I mean when one has a great strategy, why change the name so often? 😉

All in all, 2 takeaways:

👉 how many times we heard in 2025 “Bitcoin to 200k? 500k 1 million?“. The easiest way to get attention is to make outlandish claims and targets. Similarly to people that shout about 100-baggers etc … most of them are grifters, the left tail of humanity!

👉 if one really wants to own bitcoin, why would anyone get bitcoin exposure via MSRT? That is still beyond me — well, actually I know: it is mainly because of the ‘yield’ which lures investors … but I also know a thing or two about the yield and the following MEME says it all 😉

49. MicroStrategy-Bitcoin case will very likely get historical and a textbook use case. Hence, I might do a Maverick Special report on it! Stay tuned!

👉 until then, just check the Micro-Strategy Free Cash Flow / Share …

✍️ The Bitcoin & MicroStrategy Symbiosis

50. Last but not least, Bitcoin and Gold financial flows via their top dedicated ETFs:

👉 after a great start in 2024, Blackrock’s IBIT spot Bitcoin ETF is recording heavy outflows, whereas world’s largest Gold ETF GLD with massive inflows

👉 recall that neither Gold nor Bitcoin carry any yield and have no intrinsic value, they are mainly driven by narratives and flows

👍 Bonus: +200,000 views Maverick Tweet of the Year — Nasim Taleb retweet!

👉 +200,000 views for this Maverick tweet which was quoted/commented also by the legendary Nassim Taleb … so great from his side and I thank him a lot!

👉 common sense is not so common, conflicts of interest are too common, hence independent investment and economic research for the win!

👉 such an important topic that I did write an entire dedicated post about it:

✍️ Why Independent Investment and Economic Research = Paramount Nowadays!

‘If something is nonsense, you say it and say it loud. You will be harmed a little but will be antifragile — in the long run people who need to trust you will trust you.’

Nassim Nicholas Taleb: Commencement Address, American University in Beirut

Research is NOT behind a paywall and NO pesky ads here unlike most other places!

Did you enjoy this by finding it interesting, saving you time and getting valuable insights? What would be appreciated?

Just sharing this around with like-minded people, and hitting the 🔄 & ❤️ buttons!

That’ll definitely support bringing in more & more independent investment research: from a single individual … not a corporate, bank, fund, click-baity media or so … !

Like this, the big positive externalities become the name of the game! Thank you!

Have a great day! And never forget, keep compounding: family, friends, hobbies, community, work, independence, capital, knowledge, research and mindset!

Have a great 2026!

With respect,

Your Maverick 👋 🤝

namely +18,000 readers of independent research from 50 U.S. states and 165 countries:

I wish you a great joyful & restful holiday season, Merry Christmas and a New Year filled with health, followed by numerous personal and professional achievements!

After Christmas yet before New Year’s Eve, you will receive my year-in-review on the economy and financial markets via my 25-50 cherry-picked Maverick charts:

✍️ 2025 Top 25 Maverick Charts! The Year in Independent Review!

After (likely in January) you will get the following 2 Maverick Specials:

✍️ Warren Buffett’s Cash Pile & More ... Stash Away Baby! Berkshire Hathaway Report #2

✍️ 2026 Top 25 Maverick Predictions! The Inaugural Edition!

P.S. and way more independent investment & economic research incoming in 2026!

During the holidays season, many people do a lot of good and engage in charity work.

Also this time, my huge request is to NOT donate/tip and support my work, the data costs and publication overall, but rather choose the local community where you live.

That could be financial support, sorting out your home with clothes, shoes, devices, toys, anything that you do not really need! Your own personal work & time is for sure great also! Many times it means more than anything!

As always, give your best shot to be a positive influence & force out there!

If you would ask me where to donate, I am biased towards science and healthcare. There are many ways and places how to support various missions, feel free to choose!

Please take note of this remarkable recent breakthrough in the medical field:

👉 born deaf though after 2 years after treatment, a 3-year-old girl who underwent a breakthrough gene therapy treatment can hear on her own!

👉 it works by injecting a functional gene via virus into the ear, restoring otoferlin protein for sound transmission) — Let that sink in & bring the sink if you wish! 😉

👉 and remember, like with most breakthroughs, it takes a lot of human and financial capital, many bottlenecks, problem solving, years, decades of marginal improvements!

As I always like to say: the scientists, researchers, innovators, geeks, optimists, crazy ones, the naive and dreamers that dare, the ones that challenge the status quo, the mavericks, the ones who fall though get back and keep try again and again ARE the among the real heroes of society … ! 😉

Kudos, chapeau, respect, gratitude … just hats off to them! 🫡 🫶 🙏

My recommendations to play in the background these days are the following:

👉 for a calm and relaxing vibe: Ludovico Einaudi - Four Dimensions in London 2016 (note the waterphone, a unique, handcrafted instrument named after its creator, Richard Waters, and patented in 1975 … wonderful! is that the 4th dimension? 😉)

If you get lucky and notice Ludovico touring around your town, you won’t regret it, you will forget everything, and enter into another dimension: reflection, peace, connection, hopeful, bright, optimistic …

👉 for an upbeat and rhythmic vibe, a great live performance from Coldplay — I was lucky last year to attend one of their concerts which I also fully recommend to you all!

With respect and warm wishes, enjoy the festive season! And do not forget, keep compounding: family, friends, capital, community, knowledge, research and mindset!

Mav 🎄🎅❄️☃️🎁

Maverick Equity Research

first and foremost, Happy Thanksgiving to the U.S. folks! Hope you had a good one!

10 cherry picked Maverick Charts of the week say 10,000 words or more = the ‘How’!

Table of contents = the ‘What’! Executed in a succinct manner with the aim of a high density of ideas, because the best writing respects the reader’s time:

📊 Maverick Charts: S&P 500 Wall Street & Fund Managers 2026 Forecast & Risks, AI Gold Rush

📊 Bonus: Google gang vs OpenAI gang

Objective: both data-driven insights + valuable food for thought = the ‘Why’!

📊 Maverick Charts: S&P 500 Wall Street & Fund Managers 2026 Forecast & Risks, AI Gold Rush

1. S&P 500 forecasts via Wall Street strategists:

👉 outlook for 2026 as another good year: 7,300 target (currently at 6,800)

2. Fund managers survey via BofA similar vibes:

👉 57% of them target for 2026 an S&P 500 above 7,000 also

3. Risks ranking for another 2026 good year:

👉 Higher inflation / higher interest rates = 45%

👉 AI CAPEX slowing down = 26%

👉 Labor market: unemployment > 5% = 17%

👉 US-China trade = 9%

👉 POTUS loses midterms = 2%

P.S. on the AI CAPEX big cycle we are having currently I am working for 2026 on 2 Maverick proprietary indicators/indices that would capture the 2 key variables:

✍️ AI Sentiment (a qualitative, mood gauge)

✍️ AI ROI on CAPEX (a quantitative objective gauge)

Sentiment is very high now and investments have gone parabolic in the AI space. Therefore, a rigorous oversight of capital conversion efficiency is necessary to gauge the AI ecosystem’s capacity for sustained growth and ability to translate all that into corporate financial returns!

Both the qualitative and quantitative gauges are essential to map the current trend and cycle position, allowing us to forecast the eventual stabilization, subsequent market correction (shakeout), and the identification of long-term sustainable winners.

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4. S&P 500 structural composition by % of market cap by sector:

👉 1980: 14% asset-light (tech) vs 66% manufacturing

👉 2025: 49% asset light (tech) vs 17% manufacturing

Therefore, we can say S&P 500 overall is a higher quality index via the way higher margins (typical to very scalable and capital-light sectors), hence a higher P/E!

5. Nonetheless, after historical excursions, we always need to get forward looking! Hence, a gauge for underlying current dynamics are the changes in the S&P 500 industry group via Capex/Sales ratio — Technology, Media, & Telecom (TMT):

👉 from ‘capital light’, the TMT sector it is getting way more asset-intensive

👉 which means the pressure on profit margins shall rise, at least on the short term

6. The AI gold rush is on!

👉 Tech CAPEX spending as % of the aggregate S&P 500 CAPEX spending at 47%, way higher than the last 37% from back in the 2000s Dot-com bubble

👉 naturally, technology is now highly profitable and integral to the economy, but these high valuations should trigger our spider sense regarding the crucial balance between Return on Investment (ROI) and Capital Expenditures (CAPEX)

👉 Tech will need real and solid growth with also positive free cash flows in order to justify the current big AI spending

7. S&P 500 overall:

👉 the big positive is that it carries a way lower financial leverage than 1990-2000s

P.S. way more via my quarterly two distinct S&P 500 reports & materially improved in all areas: structure, flow, insights and special metrics you rarely see:

✍️ S&P 500 Report: Valuation, Fundamentals, Special Metrics & Leading Indicators

✍️ S&P 500 Report: Performance, Sentiment, Seasonality, Technical Analysis

For Top-down & Bottom-up approaches, connecting the Macro-Finance bridge also:

✍️ The State of the U.S. Economy in 75 Charts

The reports aim to break down the key aspects of the stock market and the economy. Ultimately, they aim to answer the 2 biggest question in Finance and Economics:

1. “Is the stock market = highly undervalued (very cheap), undervalued (cheap), fairly valued, overvalued (expensive), or highly overvalued (very expensive)?”

2. “What is the state of the U.S. economy, and what is the current probability of a recession?”

📊 Bonus: Google gang vs OpenAI gang 📊

8. The 1-year performance = a chart for 10,000 words!

👉 highly correlated ... until lately …

👉 Google with another gear up, yet OpenAI cooling off quite some

9 & 10. OpenAI estimated financials via HSBC:

👉 new equity funding (red dots) has to keep coming: at least $207bn until 2030, a time when also free cash flow (blue dots) might be close to be positive

👉 revenue (blue) around $220 billion in 2030

👉 $500 bn operating losses from start of year 2025 until 2030

👉 also in 2030, $76.5 billions

Maverick food for thoughts:

👉 how will competition do relative top OpenAI? Revenue, margin squeeze?

👉 tricky to scale AI products/companies which need to make a very good balancing act between: growing, infrastructure expense and results for shareholders

👉 will OpenAI go IPO before 2030? There is a chance - yet a higher one after 2030

Maverick Charts 53rd edition done, 10 key charts with many insights + Bonus!

You can check all the previous 52 editions in the Maverick Charts section!

Mission accomplished for me if the following resonates with you:

• ‘Hmm I never thought it that way’, ‘now that chart said a whole lot’, ‘now that chart was really interesting’, ‘now that is something new’, ‘now I got it!’, ‘you managed to turn something complex into something actually simple’

• hence, if you got to see something differently, my approach gave you a different angle, it did help you connect your key dots, then here we all do well!

Research is NOT behind a paywall and NO pesky ads here unlike most other places!

Did you enjoy this by finding it interesting, saving you time and getting valuable insights? What would be appreciated?

Just sharing this around with like-minded people, and hitting the 🔄 & ❤️ buttons!

That’ll definitely support bringing in more & more independent investment research: from a single individual … not a corporate, bank, fund, click-baity media or so … !

Like this, the big positive externalities become the name of the game! Thank you!

Have a great day! And never forget, keep compounding: family, friends, hobbies, community, work, independence, capital, knowledge, research and mindset!

With respect,

Your Maverick 👋 🤝

10 cherry picked Maverick Charts of the week say 10,000 words or more = the ‘How’!

Table of contents = the ‘What’ with the aim for a high density of ideas because the best respect the reader’s time:

📊 Maverick Charts: S&P 500 Valuation and Fundamentals + Global Stocks Valuation

📊 Bonus: S&P 500 and Inflation Symbiosis

Objective: both data-driven insights + valuable food for thought = the ‘Why’!

📊 Maverick Charts: S&P 500 Valuation and Fundamentals + Global Stocks Valuation

1. S&P 500 Valuation via the forward P/E ratio — path in 2025:

👉 = 22.6x now, and we begun 2025 with 22.6x also — with a 14.5% return!

👉 ‘What happened Mav’? It has gone nowhere in 2025! ‘Why? What’s going on?’

👉 14.5% solid rally in 2025 can be attributed to Earnings growth (the ‘E’ denominator in the P/E ratio), hence not a price/multiple expansion this time (the ‘P’ numerator in the P/E ratio) = a very good development!

N.B. note the April Tariff War 2.0 / Liberation day saw a 18.8x P/E bottom as the market was tanking like there is no tomorrow = yet that was actually an opportunity!

Hence, I will make 2 Maverick Special reports on that which shall be ‘evergreen’, and serve via being recalled anytime it is needed in the years and decades ahead:

✍️ Big Volatility & Drawdowns = Juicy Returns

✍️ Harvesting Geopolitical Risk Premium Through the Financial Markets and Economic Storms

Complementary, I’m also working also on a live proprietary index covering the often Geopolitical risk premium which should actually be seen as an opportunity.

✍️ Maverick Geopolitical Risk Harvesting Index (MGRH-I)

One to improve materially the medium-long term returns, hence make that compounding machine and effect kick in faster — at the end of the day, as investors we are rewarded to stomach and digest drawdowns and volatility!

2. So, how good do those Earnings look like? Q3 Earnings & Revenue scorecard (freshly updated November 21st) with 472 companies in:

👉 earnings growth = +14.7% (solid ... )

👉 revenue growth = +8.3% (very solid also ...)

👉 4th straight quarter with double-digit earnings growth — last time was Q1 2021 through Q4 2021

👉 at the sector level: 4 sectors are reporting double-digit earnings growth for the quarter: Information Technology, Utilities, Financials, and Materials

3. Revenues/Top-line wise, Highest Revenue Growth in 3 Years:

👉 8.3% = it will mark the highest revenue growth rate since Q3 2022 — 11.0% then

4. At the sectors level:

👉 all 11 sectors with Year-over-Year revenue growth

👉 3 sectors with double-digit revenue growth: Information Technology, Health Care, and Communication Services

5. S&P 500 Net Profit Margin (NPM) = 13% = near the all-time highs also!

6. Key question - what variables drove the Net Profit Margins in the last 35 years? Which ones are the tailwinds that drove the NPM from 5% in 1990 to 13% in 2025?

👉 5.7% as the big chunk via lower COGS (Cost of Goods Sold), hence way higher gross margins: partially a consequence of the integration of global supply chains + type of businesses, meaning sector composition: more tech (carrying more intangible assets, very scalable, ‘light’ type of businesses)

👉 2.9% via lower interest rates & corporate tax rates — note, going forward these two neither appear likely to decline as much during the next decade: tax rates fell big time and while interest rates rose recently, overall it was a big trend down since 1990

👉 this also explains why we have enjoyed lately (especially in the last 15 years) way higher returns than the 10% historical average

Hence, on the NPM: let that one sink in … and … bring the sink if you wish like! 😉

7. U.S. Stocks Valuation overview via forward P/E - last 20 years distributions:

👉 Nasdaq 100: from a mega 30x, cooled off a bit at 27x, up high in the 95th-5th percentile range

👉 S&P 500: at 22x and up there very high in the 95th-5th percentile range

👉 S&P 500 equal-weight: at 16x cooler than the weighted S&P 500, touching also the 75th-25th percentile range

8. 11 Sectors Valuations shaping the S&P 500 via forward P/E relative to history (absolute to sector itself and relative to the S&P 500 index) — a great overview:

👉 Technology = 27x, high relative to history

👉 Utilities = 19x, quite high relative to history

👉 Financials = 15x, very low relative to the S&P 500

👉 Energy = 15x also

9. Zooming out: US & Global Stocks Valuations overview via forward P/E:

👉 US = 22x = pricey, quite pricey: way outside the interquartile range, and also outside the 10th-90th percentile

👉 US excluding Big Tech = 19x = less pricey, but still pricey: outside the interquartile range, and also outside the 10th-90th percentile

👉 Japan, Europe = more decent despite the recent very solid performances

P.S. way more via my quarterly two distinct S&P 500 reports & materially improved in all areas: structure, flow, insights and special metrics you rarely see:

✍️ S&P 500 Report: Valuation, Fundamentals, Special Metrics & Leading Indicators

✍️ S&P 500 Report: Performance, Sentiment, Seasonality, Technical Analysis

For Top-down & Bottom-up approaches, connecting the Macro-Finance bridge also:

✍️ The State of the U.S. Economy in 75 Charts

The reports aim to break down the key aspects of the stock market and the economy. Ultimately, they aim to answer the 2 biggest question in Finance and Economics:

1. “Is the stock market = highly undervalued (very cheap), undervalued (cheap), fairly valued, overvalued (expensive), or highly overvalued (very expensive)?”

2. “What is the state of the U.S. economy, and what is the current probability of a recession?”

📊 Bonus: S&P 500 and Inflation Symbiosis 📊

10. S&P 500 Performance & Inflation Rates — almost 100 years of it since 1928:

👉 low single digits 1-3% inflation = the best for the S&P 500: 11-13% average and median returns

👉 even 3-5% inflation is not bad at all: 8% average and median returns

👉 deflation when <0% inflation sucks: -2 to -5% average and median returns

Complementary, incoming 2 Maverick Special reports on Inflation overall:

✍️ Inflation - Nuts & Bolts, Ins & Outs

✍️ Inflation - Pricing, Expectations & Leading Indicators

Maverick Charts 52nd edition done, 10 key charts with many insights + Bonus!

You can check all the previous 51 editions in the Maverick Charts section!

Mission accomplished for me if the following resonates with you:

• ‘Hmm I never thought it that way’, ‘now that chart said a whole lot’, ‘now that chart was really interesting’, ‘now that is something new’, ‘now I got it!’, ‘you managed to turn something complex into something actually simple’

• hence, if you got to see something differently, my approach gave you a different angle, it did help you connect your key dots, then here we all do well!

Research is NOT behind a paywall and NO pesky ads here unlike most other places!

Did you enjoy this by finding it interesting, saving you time and getting valuable insights? What would be appreciated?

Just sharing this around with like-minded people, and hitting the 🔄 & ❤️ buttons!

That’ll definitely support bringing in more & more independent investment research: from a single individual … not a corporate, bank, fund, click-baity media or so … !

Like this, the big positive externalities become the name of the game! Thank you!

Have a great day! And never forget, keep compounding: family, friends, hobbies, community, work, independence, capital, knowledge, research and mindset!

With respect,

Your Maverick 👋 🤝

5 cherry picked Maverick Charts of the week say 10,000 words or more = the ‘How’!

Table of contents = the ‘What’ with the aim for a high density of ideas because the best respect the reader’s time:

📊 Maverick Charts: Buffet’s stock buybacks, S&P 500, Bitcoin & MicroStrategy

📊 Bonus: Never Send These 4 Emails at Work (Employment Lawyer’s Warning)

Objective: both data-driven insights + valuable food for thought = the ‘Why’!

📊 Maverick Charts: Buffet’s stock buybacks, S&P 500, Bitcoin & MicroStrategy 📊

1. Buffett’s Berkshire (BRK) & buying back their own stock:

👉 no stock buybacks since Q2 2024

👉 the higher the price, the less doing buybacks

And that’s the way to do it ... while on the other side Corporate America is buying back stock massively — above $1 trillion this year & around $1.2 by year-end.

“The math isn’t complicated: when the share count goes down, your interest in our many businesses goes up.” … “... IF repurchases are made at VALUE-ACCRETIVE prices.” Buffett

✍️ Warren Buffett’s Cash Pile ... & More! Maverick Special #4 was released in February this year - I will update it all next week with more charts, context and nuances!

2. S&P 500 Net Profit Margin (NPM):

👉 = 13.1% = 7th consecutive quarter increase

👉 above the previous quarter’s NPM, a year-ago, and above the 5-year average

👉 in fact, this quarter marks the highest NPM in 15 years (FactSet’s historical data)

👉 previous high was 13.0% in Q2 2021

3. S&P 500 chatter box:

👉 AI AI AI ... 62% of the companies mentioned ‘AI’ during the Q3 earnings calls ...

4. Indicators of U.S. Corporate AI adoption:

👉 according to the Census Bureau survey of large firms = 13%

👉 Goldman Sachs own survey of companies = 37%,

👉 along with those claiming on earnings calls to be using it = 47%

P.S. way more via my future two distinct S&P 500 reports & materially improved in all areas: structure, flow, insights and special metrics you rarely see:

✍️ S&P 500 Report: Valuation, Fundamentals, Special Metrics & Leading Indicators

✍️ S&P 500 Report: Performance, Sentiment, Seasonality, Technical Analysis

For Top-down & Bottom-up approaches, connecting the Macro-Finance bridge also:

✍️ The State of the U.S. Economy in 75 Charts

5. Updating the ‘Bitcoin & MicroStrategy symbiosis’ chart:

👉 Bitcoin -28.5% drawdown

👉 MicroStrategy -60.6% drawdown

👉 complementary, since July: Bitcoin down -25%, Strategy down -56%

👉 MicroStrategy filed to change its name yet again, new name = Strategy. I wonder why? I mean when one has a great strategy, why change the name so often? 😉

All that ‘intelligent leverage’, high yield, perpetuals and ‘variable monthly dividend designed to maintain a stable price’ ... are not working anymore? 😇🙃😃

N.B. MicroStrategy-Bitcoin case will very likely get historical & textbook use case. Hence, I might do a Maverick Special report on it! Stay tuned!

✍️ Bitcoin and MicroStrategy Symbiosis

Bonus: one MEME to say it all in this different fashion! 😉

📊 Bonus: Never Send These 4 Emails at Work (Employment Lawyer’s Warning) 📊

I am in general the optimist-realist bringing the good vibes. Nonetheless, in order to be and do that, when it comes to one’s job and career, one should also approach that via the investing mantra: ‘Watch the Downside, the Upside Will Take Care of Itself!’ 😉

👉 I have seen many great good hearted folks lose their jobs and derail their career via one of the mine fields we all have in our jobs: the work email = a legal record!

👉 the most important, how to protect yourself? Via a Washington employment lawyer: 4 specific emails you should never ever send from your work email account!

👉 naturally, it is not Legal advice + check the comments in the video from the IT guys especially + note things vary across countries (in Europe a bit different but still)

P.S. I am not affiliated or paid to promote this video, just sharing a great resource according to a friend of mine that is also a lawyer (based in Vienna, Austria)

Maverick Charts 51th edition done, 5 key charts with many insights + Bonus!

You can check all the previous 50 editions in the Maverick Charts section!

Mission accomplished for me if the following resonates with you:

• ‘Hmm I never thought it that way’, ‘now that chart said a whole lot’, ‘now that chart was really interesting’, ‘now that is something new’, ‘now I got it!’, ‘you managed to turn something complex into something actually simple’

• hence, if you got to see something differently, my approach gave you a different angle, it did help you connect your key dots, then here we all do well!

Research is NOT behind a paywall and NO pesky ads here unlike most other places!

Did you enjoy this by finding it interesting, saving you time and getting valuable insights? What would be appreciated?

Just sharing this around with like-minded people, and hitting the 🔄 & ❤️ buttons!

That’ll definitely support bringing in more & more independent investment research: from a single individual … not a corporate, bank, fund, click-baity media or so … !

Like this, the big positive externalities become the name of the game! Thank you!

Have a great day! And never forget, keep compounding: family, friends, hobbies, community, work, independence, capital, knowledge, research and mindset!

With respect,

Your Maverick 👋 🤝

5 cherry picked Maverick Charts of the week say 10,000 words or more = the ‘How’!

Table of contents = the ‘What’ with the aim for a high density of ideas because the best respect the reader’s time:

📊 Maverick Charts: Elon Musk Dancing With Robots and the $1 Trillion Pay, Palantir vs Berkshire, S&P 500 and POTUS approval rating

📊 Bonus: Imposter Syndrome, Lean Into It Though Don’t Give In to It!

Objective: both data-driven insights + valuable food for thought = the ‘Why’!

📊 Maverick Charts: Elon Musk Dancing With Robots and the $1 Trillion Pay, Palantir vs Berkshire, S&P 500 and POTUS approval rating 📊

1. Musk dances with robots as Tesla shareholders approve a $1 trillion pay packet = largest in corporate history = $0 salary, all performance-based stock grants! And before the targets for the $1 trillion check, a visual to show how Tesla did so far:

👉 Tesla IPO-ed in 2010 valued at $1.7 billion, and finished the 1st day at $2.2 billion

👉 2025 valued at $1.428 trillion

2. Bonkers pay = bonkers milestones in order to get that $1 trillion pay:

👉 $8.5 trillion market capitalisation — from $1.4 now!

👉 20 million cars delivered

👉 10 million FSD (Full Self-Driving) active subscriptions

👉 1 million Robo-Taxis into commercial service

👉 1 million humanoid robots

👉 10-year deadline: all targets must be achieved by 2035

👉 Elon’s stake if achieved would go approximately from 15% → 25%!

Let these ones sink in also, I did not see these takes of mine out there:

• $1tn for Musk for lifting the market cap by $7.1tn

• = 14% performance fee (total/cumulative by 1/7.1), and NO base fee = way lower than many funds: hedge funds, private banking, VC/PE, mutual funds (Europe) etc

• Maverick’s opinion = that is actually very decent, or even quite cheap! — I mean I personally got to know across time many CEO’s, entrepreneurs, investors, bankers, lawyers that would not move a finger for 14% for 10 years … so yeah …)

• Super Solid Skin In The Game (SS-SITG): Musk must remain as CEO or in an executive role over product and operations for a specific period (at least 7.5 years) for the shares to be fully vested + reputational, legacy & inspirational for so many!

I did tens of thousandths of charts so far at many places and countries: stocks, bonds, macro, commodities, asset management, investor relations, investment banking, strategy, lending, leasing, risk management … charts for bank CEOs that were meeting Ms. Christine Lagarde ... you name it ... nonetheless, I never ever have thought I will make this truly quite special outlier one 😉:

Why are some criticising the pay package? It is their own shareholders who said YES for the pay = they can do whatever they want with with their own company & money!

Independent research here for sure, no politics, though a tendency I noticed generally:

👉 socialists angle: ‘crazy, too much, no way, not fair …’

👉 capitalists angle: ‘what targets need to be met?’

How achievable are the targets? Well, definitely ambitious! Yet, as I always like to say: ‘you need 100,000 dreamers to make breakthroughs happen!’ So let’s let the people dance, dream and let’s see the achievements coming in, we need innovation!

P.S. on independent, in case you missed my Maverick Special report on the topic:

✍️ Why Independent Investment and Economic Research = Paramount Nowadays! Maverick Special #9

3 & 4. Palantir (PLTR) vs Berkshire (BRK), musings on value creation in markets:

👉 Palantir had a $500 billion market cap last week ... and then I was thinking:

👉 Berkshire at $1 trillion compounded 60 years with a powerful float + led by legendary investors Warren Buffett & Charlie Munger. Also Buffett did not do ANY own stock buybacks lately, hence he sees it fairly priced or quite rather overvalued

👉 hence, Palantir created half of an entire Berkshire empire in just 2-3 years just because it is an ‘AI’ play and it started to be profitable after 2 decades of losses?

👉 on the other side Fermi (FRMI) with 0 revenue, yes 0 nada (forget profits) yet a 19bn market cap via the latest in a string of AI-related IPOs that lured investors ...

Quite a frenzy lately, so I guess all is possible ...

5. S&P 500 index price & current U.S. President approval rating — quite a gap:

• inflation is politically highly unpopular (consumer sentiment, how it impacts various parts of the population etc) as POTUS approval rating keeps dropping

• and that despite the stock market doing very fine

In other words, the economy is working for stock market investors, though it is rather not be working for most people / everyone right now. How do we unpack all that?

Via my future in-depth Macro-Finance research reports: 2 distinct & materially improved S&P 500 reports + the U.S. Economy deep dive:

✍️ S&P 500 Report: Valuation, Fundamentals, Special Metrics & Leading Indicators

✍️ S&P 500 Report: Performance, Sentiment, Seasonality & Technical Analysis

✍️ The State of the U.S. Economy in 75 Charts

P.S. full research reports will include traditional metrics, plus alternative & high frequency data + the specials: own custom/proprietary Maverick metrics & indicators!

📊 Bonus: Imposter Syndrome, Lean Into It Though Don’t Give In to It! 📊

👉 do you suffer from Imposter Syndrome? That is … GOOD!

👉 do I suffer from Imposter Syndrome? Yes, it is GOOD! Yes, you are not alone 😉

👉 the people you interact with the most do not? I’m getting a bit worried, watch out!

Enjoy this piece from Harvard behavioral social scientist and author Arthur C. Brooks:

Maverick’s takeaways:

👉 Self-doubt is usually evidence of healthy humility, not incompetence, and a clear contrast to the overconfidence of “dark-triad” personalities!

👉 Reframe imposter feelings as diagnostic feedback, then “lean in without giving in” by targeting the specific skills and knowledge gaps those feelings reveal, turning discomfort into a disciplined catalyst for growth!

Maverick Charts 50th edition done, 5 key charts with many insights!

You can check all the previous 49 editions in the Maverick Charts section!

Mission accomplished for me if the following resonates with you:

• ‘Hmm I never thought it that way’, ‘now that chart said a whole lot’, ‘now that chart was really interesting’, ‘now that is something new’, ‘now I got it!’, ‘you managed to turn something complex into something actually simple’

• hence, if you got to see something differently, my approach gave you a different angle, it did help you connect your key dots, then here we all do well!

Research is NOT behind a paywall and NO pesky ads here unlike most other places!

Did you enjoy this by finding it interesting, saving you time and getting valuable insights? What would be appreciated?

Just sharing this around with like-minded people, and hitting the 🔄 & ❤️ buttons!

That’ll definitely support bringing in more & more independent investment research: from a single individual … not a corporate, bank, fund, click-baity media or so … !

Like this, the big positive externalities become the name of the game! Thank you!

Have a great day! And never forget, keep compounding: family, friends, hobbies, community, work, independence, capital, knowledge, research and mindset!

With respect,

Your Maverick 👋 🤝

10 cherry picked Maverick Charts of the week say 10,000 words or more = the ‘How’!

Table of contents = the ‘What’ with the aim for a high density of ideas because the best respect the reader’s time:

📊 Maverick Charts: MicroStrategy & Bitcoin, Robinhood Trader vs Stockholder, Amazon, Tesla, ASML & TSMC

📊 Bonus: How to use AI: When Great Questions = Great Answers!

Objective: both data-driven insights + valuable food for thought = the ‘Why’!

📊 Maverick Charts: MicroStrategy & Bitcoin, Robinhood Trader vs Stockholder, Amazon, Tesla, ASML & TSMC 📊

1. MicroStrategy & Bitcoin, a match, anti-match made in heaven, hell or Tinder? 😉

👉 Bitcoin (BTC) -16% drawdown

👉 MicroStrategy (MSTR) -46% drawdown

👉 from -16% underlying to -46% in the portfolio = the new ‘3 baggers’ or ‘3x’? ;))

All that ‘intelligent leverage’, high yield, perpetuals and ‘variable monthly dividend designed to maintain a stable price’ ... are not working anymore? 😇🙃😊

N.B. MicroStrategy-Bitcoin symbiosis will very likely get historical & textbook use case. Hence, I might do a detailed Maverick Special report on it:

✍️ Bitcoin and MicroStrategy (MSTR), a Match Made in Heaven, Hell … or Tinder?

2. Robinhood ‘alpha’ trader vs Robinhood alpha stockholder = why it is bad to be a Robinhood trader, but great to be a Robinhood stockholder:

👉 chart 1: Robinhood stockholder ringing the cash machine like there is no tomorrow:

• +321% since IPO (July 2021)

• +420% last 12 months, and

• +294% in 2025 (sales & net income performing very well lately via direct fees, PFOF & more)

👉 chart 2: since 2021, typical Robinhood user/trader/investor not even breaking even (as expected of course)

‘Why this performance gap Mav? It is upside down!’

Simple: the latter (stock) is due to the former (client) 😉

Maverick’s takeaway:

• it is a bit like with MicroStrategy & Bitcoin, and generally with Crypto

• bad to trade it, great if you own the infrastructure, heads you win tails you win

• = more trades, more hype, more money (not to mention crypto hypers, pumpers and scammers … bitcoin per as an investment, not trading, that’s a different story)

N.B. one day I will also do a Maverick Special report on this!

3. On peculiar valuations via forward P/E - Amazon vs Walmart & Costco:

👉 Amazon trades at 31.7x, though guess who trades even higher and way higher?

👉 retail all over the place chaps Walmart and Costco: 36.7x & 45.4x

Let that one sink in … and … brink the sink if you wish 😉

4. Amazon AWS Re-acceleration:

👉 erased many doubts this quarter with AWS reaching $132 billion in annual recurring revenue (ARR) and reaccelerating growth to 20%

👉 CEO Andy Jassy pulled no punches either when talking about AWS’ performance compared to their cloud peers:

“AWS is growing at a pace we haven’t seen since 2022... It’s worth remembering that YoY percentage growth is a relative term. It’s very different having 20% YoY growth on a $132 billion annualized run rate than to have a higher percentage growth rate on a meaningfully smaller annual revenue, which is the case with our competitors.”

5. Google Quarterly Cloud Backlog Growth - the narrative around the search giant has completely transformed from “AI loser” to “AI leader” in the span of 6 months:

👉 this AI leadership is especially showing up in Google’s Cloud demand: this quarter, Google added $50 billion to its cloud backlog, reaching a total of $158 billion

👉 on top of the robust demand, Google Cloud also reported a 24% operating margin this quarter — the highest in the company’s history

6. Tesla (TSLA) revenue sources, check this alternative & growing one:

👉 they generate now annually $12 billion via energy generation and storage

👉 that’s up ~6x over the last 5 years

👉 how big will likely be this segment by 2030?

7. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), world’s largest contract chipmaker, producing over 90% of the world’s most advanced semiconductors:

👉 Sales from Taiwan Semiconductor’s most advanced nodes (3nm and 5nm) now account for 60% of their overall revenue

8. ASML Holding NV (ASML), the world’s supplier to the semiconductor industry:

👉 the average price of a single EUV (extreme ultraviolet) lithography machine from ASML now costs €235 million

9. Charles Schwab (SCHW):

👉 clients at Charles Schwab at just 9% of total assets, are holding the lowest percentage of cash since the 2007-2009 Great Financial Crisis

👉 higher at 11% in 2025 around the March-April POTUS Trade War 2.0, and higher at 13% during the 2022 bear market: is should be the other way around, but as usual, people rise case by selling when the market falls, and deploy most of their cash when the market is booming

P.S. I am 23% cash (U.S. treasuries, Swiss bonds, Money Market Funds) + hunting also cheap hedging opportunities so that when we have the next bear market / recession, also then aim to be in a position of: ‘Heads I Win, Tails I Win’ = the essence of investing!

10. Interactive Brokers (IBKR):

👉 IBKR crossed 4 million total accounts this quarter

👉 which is up nearly 20x from their account base in 2012

P.S. selected single stock like these will be covered in full via the dedicated section:

✍️ Full Equity Research

📊 Bonus: How to use AI: When Great Questions = Great Answers! 📊

Since many years (way before the democratisation of AI) I often said at work or in various contexts in my personal life that for problem solving, asking the right question(s) can be many times the most difficult ‘solution’ and/or the best ‘answer’:

Now imagine the following reactions, so funny to thing about them looking back:

👉 ‘this guy is funny, weird, what the heck is he talking about, not confident to provide the answer?’ … ‘is this guy making fun of me?’ ‘is he avoiding the answer?’

👉 many times, the best dressed person in the room, the loudest voice, the most confident ‘alpha’ in a suit was the most annoyed by my kind of ‘answer’ and ‘solution’

👉 now confidence is great for sure, but many times confident, in a suit and having a very high salary is inversely correlated with expertise & depth on the given topic

👉 on the other side, the more balanced people, the ‘thinkers’, the ones who were actually quite deep into the subject were actually very pleased and thrilled

👉 I understand execution and motivation is important, overthinking and too many questions can also be detrimental, hence overall a mix of all should be the aim

Back to how to best use AI, check NVDA CEO Jensen Huang on the topic, and then my ‘intro’ into the topic will resonate a lot — the key for the answer is the question:

👉 answering questions is our typical training via convergence logic, meaning you can’t tell your professor/boss ‘your question is dumb’ or you will get a bad grade / fired

👉 like this, it is very easy for a group to end up with a ‘mental straight jacket on!’

👉 hence, check Elon and see how very often, the best answer is the great question!

• meaning truly understanding what questions to ask, and if you can properly frame the question, then the answer and solution are actually the easy part!

• and just like that, breakthrough solutions can pop while explaining it!

Therefore, I strive to for the following as written in the ‘About’ page:

40% thinker, 40% doer and 20% talker, the world has too many talkers, doesn’t it? 😉

That is why, besides many times providing you answers via the research, as you got used to by now there are also open questions as food for thought for you!

And if you put too much pressure on yourself (typical for high-achievers), recall Musk:

‘Everyone’s wrong. No matter who you are. Everyone’s wrong some of the time!’ 😉

Maverick Charts 49th edition done, 10 key charts with many insights!

You can check all the previous 48 editions in the Maverick Charts section!

Mission accomplished for me if the following resonates with you:

• ‘Hmm I never thought it that way’, ‘now that chart said a whole lot’, ‘now that chart was really interesting’, ‘now that is something new’, ‘now I got it!’, ‘you managed to turn something complex into something actually simple’

• hence, if you got to see something differently, my approach gave you a different angle, it did help you connect your key dots, then here we all do well!

Research is NOT behind a paywall and NO pesky ads here unlike most other places!

Did you enjoy this by finding it interesting, saving you time and getting valuable insights? What would be appreciated?

Just sharing this around with like-minded people, and hitting the 🔄 & ❤️ buttons!

That’ll definitely support bringing in more & more independent investment research: from a single individual … not a corporate, bank, fund, click-baity media or so … !

Like this, the big positive externalities become the name of the game! Thank you!

Have a great day! And never forget, keep compounding: family, friends, hobbies, community, work, independence, capital, knowledge, research and mindset!

With respect,

Your Maverick 👋 🤝

7 cherry picked Maverick Charts of the week say 10,000 words or more = the ‘How’!

Table of contents = the ‘What’ with the aim for a high density of ideas because the best respect the reader’s time:

📊 Maverick Charts: The Yield Curve, Recessions & Bear Markets, AI and Productivity, Wealth by Generations, U.S. Debt & USD, Consumer Sentiment

📊 Bonus: Happiness = Gratitude - Expectations - Envy

Objective: both data-driven insights + valuable food for thought = the ‘Why’!

📊 Maverick Charts: The Yield Curve, Recessions & Bear Markets, AI and Productivity, Wealth by Generations, U.S. Debt & USD, Consumer Sentiment 📊

Connecting monetary policy, the bond market via the Yield Curve with the stock market via the S&P 500 (Macro-Finance) — let’s check them all out with one chart:

1. Yield Curve 10Y-3M (blue) = 0.16% is back again positive — chart shows the last 30 years of inversions/un-inversions and the S&P 500 (green) for the famous markets/economics mantra ‘Is This Time Different?’

👉 2022: recession wise (grey), yield curve inversions most of the time signals an incoming recession, though most recently it gave us the head fake (false signal) in 2022 as the most anticipated recession never came = ‘It Was Different This Time’

👉 2022: stock market wise (green) though, the positive signal was still valid also for the 2022 bear market (drawdown in red) = ‘It Was Not Different This Time Either’

Therefore:

👉 Recessions wise:

• Yield Curve inversions are to be watched for likely incoming tough periods

• note that the exact inversion points are not the real/true signal for an incoming recession, but it’s the uninversion period coming right after — in other words, it is the steepening post-uninversion that is when things start to happen

• given that we did not have a solid uninversion so far (YC is only a bit positive), technically the YC could still foresee a recession should it go higher / steepen

• on the other side, this inversion and un-inversion period has been going on for +3 years which is quite atypical … in any case, a steepening is to be watched!

👉 Stock Bear Markets wise:

• just like Maverick in Top Gun going inverted, it very likely DOES show us the birdie, hence the incoming bear market - fair & nice guy, no? 😉

• each of the past 4 big bear markets since 1995 were preceded by YC inversions

Hence, the yield curve is still one to be watched!

N.B. there is for sure a lot more about the Yield Curve special topic:

• more yield curve types, context, nuances, other variables, hence still judgement calls to be made on a case by case (regime by regime) basis

• that is why in 2026 I will also do a Maverick Special dedicated report covering: longer history, more key stats, more intricacies, more insights and takeaways

✍️ Maverick Special: Yield Curves, Recessions and Bear Markets, a Deep Dive

2. AI & Productivity = connecting the AI thematic with the real economy via a historical chart from 1894 on the U.S. business sector labor productivity:

👉 early industry gains drove the largest productivity booms ...

👉 current productivity (the base) is still pretty low ...

👉 hence, is AI the next productivity train everybody embarks on?

3. U.S. Wealth by Generation = +150 trillion total (2024 Q1), let that one sink in!

👉 Baby boomers (born 1946-1964) own 52% of the entire net wealth = 78.5 trillion

👉 Gen X (born 1965-1980) own 26% = 39.1 trillion

👉 Silent Gen (born before 1946) own 13% = 19.8 trillion

👉 Millennials (born 1981-1996) own 9% = 14.2 trillion

How is that distributed deeper among the population? Well, quite a story, a different and way deeper story … I will also do a Maverick Special report on that …:

✍️ Inequality, Wealth Concentration, Taxation, Equity and More

Complementary bonus views updated as of Q2 2025 (latest available): total & share %:

4. From the +150 trillion in wealth, what about the U.S. government debt?

👉 surpassed $38 trillion, an all-time high

👉 +10 trillion in less than 5 years

👉 +$500 billions jump in the last month

👉 +$16 billion per day

Current fiscal path isn’t good:

• 125% debt-to-GDP ratio, +7% deficits annually (highest among advanced economies), and IMF projecting a 143.4% debt-to-GDP by 2030

5. No wonder the USD is having one of the worst years in decades

N.B. in case you missed the Maverick Special dedicated report on the topic, there you go below. Given the importance of the topic, there will be future updated editions:

✍️ U.S. Public Debt Reduction = Hard but Feasible. Maverick Special #6

Understanding fiscal policy, politics in general is important:

👉 yet partisan investing views is not a good idea — actually, investors who cannot separate their political views/bias from their investing are destined to lose money

👉 your own hard earned capital does not care about your politics, only where it is deployed to grow — political bias is free, but very costly to follow! (I saw this happen so much that I could write a book with the use cases)

6. Nonetheless, politics clearly plays a role in people’s perception of the economy, and for that we just have to look at Consumer Sentiment by Party Affiliation:

👉 the gap between Republicans and Democrats’ sentiment hit a record high in October via the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

👉 check the spread (bottom blue/red) and see how ‘consistent’ the spread is across election cycles, yet that is for the wrong reasons … watch out how people’s political views distort how they perceive economic realities VS what it truly is

👉 in short, the real economy isn’t what people have it, but what team they’re on - everyone likes to be on the winning team … even if overall it is not the best team …

N.B. in case you missed the Maverick Special dedicated report on the topic, there you go below. Given the importance of the topic, there will be future updated editions:

✍️ U.S. Presidency - Does It Really & Deeply Matter? Maverick Special #3

From partisan investing views, to personal political views: not only that it’s best to leave politics out of investing, but also daily personal consumption and debate should not be too high: spending too much time on politics carries a big opportunity cost!

👉 10h/week makes for 520h/year, and 2,080 hours for just one 4-year political cycle

👉 make that 4 times, for 16 years, and it is 8,320 hours spent …

👉 not saying to ignore politics, just that to understand what is going on and know whom to vote for, does not require spending thousandths of hours on — going beyond emotions, be it I/we like it or not, there is not much control over it …

👉 how many better things one could do with those hours? read a book, make a new course, work more … invest more = compound faster … exercise, sleep, relax more!

Usually when I say this to people, they are usually bothered by it. Some of them follow ‘the advice’ and some I meet randomly years after, and they tell me: ‘thanks a lot man, I am a different person now, better, more balanced, I focus on what matters, and I have more things under control. I have changed my mindset and my life!’.

And that is one of the easiest and most reliable forecasts I can make! That is because Politics are prone to polarisation, and together with News in general are a big part of ‘The Rise of Negative Media’ for clicks & views for advertising money. Algos are just made like that, because that is what attracts views!

7. As always, I have empirical data on that not just some empty or random opinion:

👉 there is a huge negative news positive bias, and a big positive news negative bias.

👉 since 2010, the media massively increased headlines that use fear, anger, disgust, and sadness. Correspondingly, it has also decreased articles of neutrality and joy.

Hence, it’s not surprising when I see people that go from obsessed about politics to a more balanced consumption, that they feel better, they use their time and skills on things they can actually control directly, hence just become way better individuals.

N.B. overall economy wise, way more via the next comprehensive & improved report:

✍️ The State of the U.S. Economy in 75 Charts, Edition #4

📊 Bonus: Happiness = Gratitude - Expectations - Envy 📊

As you got used to, this section is usually also for charts, but this time around it is way more than that. We all have the topic of happiness around our thinking, and while it is very subjective and impossible to quantify, actually I always had a ‘formula’ for it:

Happiness = Gratitude - Expectations - Envy

• gratitude and expectations are more internal while envy can be seen external

• if expectations are too high, even if we do achieve a lot, yet it is below our (maybe unrealistic) expectations, then expectations is a negative actually — other than that, all great with having high expectations and achieving them!

• envy, goes without saying is not helpful, except when seen via a positive spin as a catalyst: ‘I can do a lot and achieve that also!’ , ‘if he/she can do it, then I can also!’

Going forward, I just suggest you watch this segment from CNBC’s Squawk Box: Arthur Brooks on Mood of Nation - enjoy!

• tech is great, but take breaks from it, used in excess it becomes detrimental

• less news, less politics, less polarisation, less ‘inside the algo’, more outdoors

• switching from the ‘The Pursuit of Happiness’ by inverting it and having a run with ‘The Happiness of the Pursuit!’

Arthur Brooks podcast (I am not affiliated, I was not paid for via an ad placement):

Takeaway:

👉 you reading this, it is very likely you are doing just fine or even great: you did your best, ups and down, just take a moment to pause & self-reflect, give it a go on being grateful for all your successes, failures from which you learned, all your trial and errors … and from there, keep enjoying your journey, keep it rocking!

Maverick Charts 48th edition done, 7 key charts with many insights!

You can check all the previous 47 editions in the Maverick Charts section!

Mission accomplished for me if the following resonates with you:

• ‘Hmm I never thought it that way’, ‘now that chart said a whole lot’, ‘now that chart was really interesting’, ‘now that is something new’, ‘now I got it!’, ‘you managed to turn something complex into something actually simple’

• hence, if you got to see something differently, my approach gave you a different angle, it did help you connect your key dots, then here we all do well

Research is NOT behind a paywall and NO pesky ads here unlike most other places!

Subscribe now

Did you enjoy this by finding it interesting, saving you time and getting valuable insights? What would be appreciated?

Just sharing this around with like-minded people, and hitting the 🔄 & ❤️ buttons!

That’ll definitely support bringing in more & more independent investment research: from a single individual … not a corporate, bank, fund, click-baity media or so … !

Like this, the big positive externalities become the name of the game! Thank you!

Have a great day! And never forget, keep compounding: family, friends, hobbies, community, work, independence, capital, knowledge, research and mindset!

With respect,

Mav 👋 🤝

7 cherry picked Maverick Charts of the week say 10,000 words or more = the ‘How’!

Table of contents = the ‘What’ with the aim for a high density of ideas because the best respect the reader’s time:

📊 Maverick Charts: S&P 500 Valuation, AI Big Tech FCF Yield & Performance, Interest Rates as ‘everything in valuation gets back to interest rates’

📊 Bonus: One to buy during a sell-off, preparing the shopping list

Objective: both data-driven insights + valuable food for thought = the ‘Why’!

📊 Maverick Charts: S&P 500 Valuation, AI Big Tech FCF Yield & Performance, Interest Rates as ‘everything in valuation gets back to interest rates’ 📊

1. S&P 500 valuation via Free Cash Flow (FCF) Yield (most requested for update):

👉 S&P 500 (blue) trades at 2.38% which is even below -2 Standard Deviations (SD) which is not surprising given the 3-year mega bull market we have since 2022

👉 back in the 2022 bear market, FCF Yield was at +5%, hence more than 2x higher!

👉 just like usual, bear markets is the time to buy in order to make that fresh invested capital compound way faster: easy to say, hard to do? yes, but that is what is required!

Maverick net takeaways:

👉 I am not a buyer these days even though plenty of great companies in the S&P 500, plenty other opportunities, and as always: “Price is what you pay, value is what you get!”

👉 an inverted metric a’ la Maverick in Top Gun 😉, meaning this shall be seen as a “Buy High, Sell Low” ... & ... “Sell Low, Buy High”

👉 buying zone = rather within the 4-6% FCF yield range ... for example see when at +1 SD (2022 bear market), and even more so at +2 SD (Covid crash, 2018 bear market)

2. S&P 500 valuation via Price/Free Cash Flow (the inverse of the FCF/Yield):

👉 at 42.1x, way above even the +2 Standard Deviations (SD)

👉 at it is the highest since the 2000s Dot-com peak

For way more on the S&P 500, the 2 recurrent and improved S&P 500 reports will cover a lot of ground, and it will also answer ‘how overvalued or not the market is?’:

✍️ S&P 500 Report: Valuation, Fundamentals, Special Metrics & Leading Indicators

✍️ S&P 500 Report: Performance, Sentiment, Seasonality & Technical Analysis

N.B. inside you will find also proprietary/custom metrics & indicators! Stay tuned!

3. The big headline is about the Mega Tech with AI, wondering their FCF yield?

• Apple = 2.4%, and if we adjust for stock-based compensation (SBC) = 2.09%

• Netflix = 1.92% with 1.85% after SBC

• Meta = 2.66% and 1.73% after SBC

• Microsoft = 1.78% with 1.48% after SBC

• Nvidia = 1.43% and 1.32% after SBC

• Google = 2.01% with 1.31% after SBC

• Tesla = 0.45% and 0.29% after SBC

• Amazon = 0.55% with (0.3%), yes, negative after SBC

4. The Mag 7 U.S. Big Tech are naturally the talk in the town, though check this one:

👉 JPMorgan (JPM) has outperformed 6 of the Magnificent 7 over the last 5 years

👉 Nvidia (NVDA) the mega outlier which makes this chart ‘off the charts’ basically

5. While AI is the big headliner with the current big market rally, not many told you that a material factor are the falling interest rates (discount rates/cost of capital):

👉 FED lowered rates for the second time this year (by a 10-2 FOMC vote), and is now sitting in the range of 3.75% to 4.00%

6. Interest rates expectations/priced in via Fed Funds Futures:

👉 2025 expectations wise: another 0.25% (25 b.p.) cut is in the cards with a 63% probability at the December FOMC (in 38 days to be precise)

👉 2026 expectations wise: 3 rate cuts are priced in by September

Recall Buffett on interest rates: “everything in valuation gets back to interest rates”, … & … “interest rates are ‘gravity’ on stock prices”, “The most important thing is future interest rates”.

Given that, I am also working on a Maverick Special report dedicated to this key topic:

✍️ Maverick Special: The Top 5 Charts You Need to Know About the FED and Interest Rates

Complementary, to unpack way more these key topics via solid rationale, data, nuances and insights, I will also do 2 dedicated Maverick Special reports:

✍️ Is the U.S. Stock Market in a Bubble? (Part II), you can read Part I here

✍️ Market Pockets of Overvaluation, Animal Spirits Behaviour and Bubbly Territory

📊 Bonus: One to buy during a sell-off, preparing the shopping list 📊

With the great on-going bull market, all is easy, we all have it good. Yet, this is the time when many start thinking they are geniuses, some start saying they are better than Buffett, the indices, this fund, that professional.

Some also start showing off how well they did do their neighbors & colleagues, posting online for all to see as they crave attention & clout online. All that while YOLO-ing MEME stocks, leveraged and/or riding a high beta/momentum wave.

One should not fall for that trap, no FOMO. Treating investing as a pi*sing contest is a top mistake investors do, and it happens often when one is not disciplined, and does not have a solid plan. The essence of investing is not to get wiped out (like many will) + to do well no matter what, hence keep compounding long-term.

Therefore, I strongly believe what makes a great investor is his plan, how he reacts and how he does during a bear market and a recession. One part of that is having a shopping list ready to be bought during a bear market. Recall Warren Buffett:

7. Hence, capital deployed at occasionally bargain prices to compound beautifully for the years to come as the recovery happens, and good times come back.

👉 Chart 1 = 3,440% return with a 12.36% yearly return / CAGR (green line) since 1995 VS S&P 500 great also but 2,227% return with a 10.83% CAGR (blue line)

👉 Chart 2 dividend overview = yield + payments:

• 4.9% = current dividend yield

• 8% = yield during the 2000s bear market

• 13% = yield during the 2008 Lehman/GFC crisis

• 19% = yield during the 2020 Covid crisis

• dividend payments stream = recurring and increasing across time, and both during the bad and good periods of the business cycle

Locking-in that dividend stream looks quite juicy during bear markets.

I will cover this stock in detail (business model, management, outlook) in the future via the dedicated single stocks section ✍️ Full Equity Research

P.S. reminder for income/dividend investors:

• total returns + after-tax returns = what matters

• there is nothing special about dividends per se = that is because you can always sell parts of your investment & create your own dividend at wish

• hence very likely more tax efficient (unless in a jurisdiction where income is taxed less than capital gains, and you want income / to sell parts recurrently)

Maverick Charts 47th edition done, 7 key charts with many insights!

You can check all the previous 46 editions in the Maverick Charts section!

Mission accomplished for me if the following resonates with you:

• ‘Hmm I never thought it that way’, ‘now that chart said a whole lot’, ‘now that chart was really interesting’, ‘now that is something new’, ‘now I got it!’, ‘you managed to turn something complex into something actually simple’

• hence, if you got to see something differently, my approach gave you a different angle, it did help you connect your key dots, then here we all do well!

Research is NOT behind a paywall and NO pesky ads here unlike most other places!

Did you enjoy this by finding it interesting, saving you time and getting valuable insights? What would be appreciated?

Just sharing this around with like-minded people, and hitting the 🔄 & ❤️ buttons!

That’ll definitely support bringing in more & more independent investment research: from a single individual … not a corporate, bank, fund, click-baity media or so … !

Like this, the big positive externalities become the name of the game! Thank you!

Have a great day! And never forget, keep compounding: family, friends, hobbies, community, work, independence, capital, knowledge, research and mindset!

With respect,

Your Maverick 👋 🤝

12 cherry picked Maverick Charts of the week say 10,000 words or more = the ‘How’!

Table of contents = the ‘What’ with the aim for a high density of ideas because the best respect the reader’s time:

📊 Maverick Charts: Big Tech Taking Over The World, Semiconductors, Hyperscalers AI Gold Rush, S&P 500 Valuation, Germany DAX & Swiss Stocks

📊 Bonus: U.S. ETFs massive inflows + Blackrock massive AUM

Objective: both data-driven insights + valuable food for thought = the ‘Why’!

📊 Maverick Charts: Big Tech Taking Over The World, Semiconductors, Hyperscalers AI Gold Rush, S&P 500 Valuation, Germany DAX & Swiss Stocks 📊

1. ‘Tech is Taking Over the World, Baby!’ updated chart - Tech relative to the S&P 500:

👉 Tech sector (XLK) sitting relatively again way above the mighty S&P 500 (SPY): actually it jumped again above even the +2 Standard Deviations SD (red) ...

👉 way above the average (green) which was Pre-Covid 2020 - then during Covid it broke to +1 SD (orange) while it ran even above the +2 SD in the 2023 AI run, and now again with the AI 2.0 mega run

👉 Tech today = real = it works = big earnings and cash flow via cloud, infrastructure, AI = hence very likely NOT a 2000s style Dot-com bubble ...

Nonetheless:

👉 it’s hard to ignore the parabolic run lately, especially given relative to the S&P 500 which is not a shabby construct at all - I mean it is the big 11 sectors of Corporate America which also derives 40% of revenues from outside the U.S. (XLK/SPY ratio would be naturally even higher if from the SPY denominator we would take out XLK)

👉 overall quite a pricey market with a lot of future growth baked into the valuations = it’s a bit of a luxury problem to have after all, but still one shouldn’t get complacent: reassessing, trade-offs, and comparing other investment opportunity sets is still key!

👉 while some market pockets are very likely overcooked & overvalued

2. ‘Semiconductors are Taking Over the World, Baby!’ updated chart also - Semiconductors relative to the S&P 500 with a similar story:

👉 2020 = broke above the +1 SD

👉 2023 = broke above further ... above the +2 SD via a parabolic run

👉 2025 = again above the +2SD via a similar parabolic style

Let that sink in … & ... food for thought(s) ... 😉

3. Looking at the Semiconductors valuation via the Price/Sales ratio:

👉 Industry Group at nearly 16x

4. ETFs wise the Price/Sales ratio:

👉 SOXX (iShares Semiconductor ETF) = 8.0x

👉 SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) = 9.3x

5. ‘The AI Gold Rush’ via the Hyperscalers CAPEX (capital spending):

👉 Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta have spent almost $300 billion in combined capital expenditures over the last 12 months!

The big question when massive investing happens in any industry = ‘how can we know if it will lead to results, efficiencies, added value, hence also subsequent financial returns? ‘

• typically investments happen big time and they do overshoot, then cool-off, likely a heavier correction (like a clean-up), while after the rebound comes where the good resulted outputs are carried forward

• hence, how can one track when is it around the inflection point where more is not better, and actually wasted capital & financial losses might be around the corner?

I am working on my own 2 proprietary metrics/methodology to track this key one:

• Maverick Computing Efficiency Index (MCEI) = a hard/quantitative indicator where computing power & deployed capital are combined in order to assess how good/bad the industries’ AI Gold Rush is yielding results (investment VS return)

• Maverick AI multiple (MAIM) = a soft/qualitative indicator, a Price-to-AI multiple to gauge how hot, super hot, or cooling the AI thematic/trend actually is

Combining the 2 metrics will aim to give us a good gauge for where we are in the AI industry cycle, and how good/bad is AI translating investments into corporate returns.

This goes further with implications on Valuation of the sector, but also the market overall (S&P 500) given the big weight these companies have, and also across the entire U.S. Economy … hence, nowadays this is quite a material indicator. Most likely to be released in 2026 given that it is tricky to do + very time and data/costs intensive.

Moreover, to unpack all this with more rationale data and insights, I will do 2 dedicated Maverick Special reports:

✍️ Is the U.S. Stock Market in a Bubble? (Part II), you can read Part I here

✍️ Market Pockets of Overvaluation, Animal Spirits Behaviour and Bubbly Territory

Overall economy wise, way more via the next comprehensive & improved coverage:

✍️ The State of the U.S. Economy in 75 Charts, Edition #4

6. U.S. Equity Valuations vs History via the Forward P/E, a great overview:

👉 Nasdaq-100 = 29x = way above 20-year median, and in the 95th-5th %ile range

👉 S&P 500 (weighted) = 23x = way above the 20-year median, and off the chart in terms of the 95th-5th %ile range

👉 S&P 500 (equal-weight) = 17x = not much above the 20-year median, and around the 75th-25th %ile range = more decent valuation

👉 S&P 400 (Mid-Caps) = 16x = at the 20-year median, and well inside the 75th-25th %ile range = way more decent valuation

N.B. Mid-Caps & Small-Caps are the place to hunt for undervalued stocks, hence I will cover quite in details some names from that space via the dedicated section

✍️ Full Equity Research

7. S&P 500 equal-weight vs/relative to weighted (RSP/SPY):

👉 statistical bands with the mean & standard deviations: now below even -2 SD ...

8. Valuation wise via the forward P/E = 23.9x vs 18.4x = gap becomes jaws like:

👉 the idea here is that valuations should converge sooner or later: currently the market is pulled up big time by the Mag 7 and/or Top 10 which are mostly Big Tech

👉 in the most bullish case = we should have a convergence, meaning ideally more earnings across all the 11 sectors - that is because AI efficiencies should be felt across the 11 sectors and the economy

👉 in simple terms: we can’t build, live, eat, travel, consume, innovate just online in the ‘cloud’ via clicks - the real economy shall get efficiencies & higher earnings also!