If you wish to answer the question: "are we in a bubble", the best way is to read the book "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds", Mackay, 1849. The first part is a survey of financial bubbles which happened before 1849. The rest of the several hundred pages is about the Crusades, Alchemy, and all sorts of nonsense that people believed in.
It is from 1849, but written in surprisingly modern style.
The "abridged" versions are usually just the financial bubble stories, which is fine for this purpose. In the end, charts won't help. It's a "vibe" thing. Reading these stories gives you a lovely sense of exactly what it is like to live through a bubble.
Great recommendation, thank you! Indeed, it is a 'vibe' thing and in some pockets of the market the bubble is present. Overall, I still believe more is needed to be into a bubble. I will check, monitor and updates will be provided via my future reports. Have a great day!
Glad to hear Blake I will update the charts as we go along, maybe I will do it for the Nasdaq also besides the MSCI World IT, and see how the gap goes going forward. Until then same, stance. No bubble currently, while valuation wise, rather in overvaluation territory though not by a lot. Cheers!
If you wish to answer the question: "are we in a bubble", the best way is to read the book "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds", Mackay, 1849. The first part is a survey of financial bubbles which happened before 1849. The rest of the several hundred pages is about the Crusades, Alchemy, and all sorts of nonsense that people believed in.
It is from 1849, but written in surprisingly modern style.
The "abridged" versions are usually just the financial bubble stories, which is fine for this purpose. In the end, charts won't help. It's a "vibe" thing. Reading these stories gives you a lovely sense of exactly what it is like to live through a bubble.
https://www.amazon.com/Extraordinary-Popular-Delusions-Madness-Crowds/dp/1539849589/
Great recommendation, thank you! Indeed, it is a 'vibe' thing and in some pockets of the market the bubble is present. Overall, I still believe more is needed to be into a bubble. I will check, monitor and updates will be provided via my future reports. Have a great day!
Great post! The two charts comparing price and earnings from the dot com era and today say a lot.
Glad to hear Blake I will update the charts as we go along, maybe I will do it for the Nasdaq also besides the MSCI World IT, and see how the gap goes going forward. Until then same, stance. No bubble currently, while valuation wise, rather in overvaluation territory though not by a lot. Cheers!
Great analysis! 😊
Glad to hear Joe!
More and both quick research notes + in-dept reports are coming!
Have a good next week!