✍️ Maverick Charts of the Week #29: U.S. GDP, Global Returns, S&P 500, Sentiment + Bitcoin
10 Maverick charts that say 10,000 words + incoming Maverick-esque research!
Dear all,
10 charts of the week this time and many with both insight + food for thought!
Table of contents:
📊 U.S. GDP, Global Leaderboard, S&P 500, Sentiment + Bitcoin
📊 Incoming Maverick-esque research!
Enjoy!
📊 U.S. GDP, Global Leaderboard, S&P 500, Sentiment + Bitcoin 📊
U.S. Q2 2025 real GDP tracking:
👉 2nd quarter real GDP growth at 2.4% via Atlanta Fed's latest GDPNow
P.S. way more on the U.S. economy via my dedicated extensive macro research - the 4th edition is work in progress and coming with major improvements
✍️ The State of the US Economy in 75 Charts, Edition #4
Global returns leaderboard since POTUS Trade War 2.0 (2nd of April 2025):
👉 Top 4 leaders: Bitcoin, Magnificent 7, German stocks and Nasdaq
👉 Top 4 laggards: US dollar, Industrial Metals, Commodities, WTI Crude Oil
S&P 500 - since Trade War 2.0 … and … as U.S.-China trade tensions eased:
👉 rose last week for 5 consecutive days with a 5% weekly gain
👉 and this came after a very recent 9 consecutive days which made it for the longest winning streak since 2004!
👉 playbook: U.S. backed up and started to negotiate quite fast … as I foresaw and tweeted about on April 5th (just 3 days after Liberation Tariff day)
👉 ‘In any case, for me a good period to collect / harvest geopolitical risk premium’ which is basically a great way to improve medium-long term returns …
S&P 500 Price Returns by U.S. President since 1929:
👉 current POTUS with -1.5% recovering after a double digit fall once Trade War 2.0
S&P 500 return breakdown in 2025:
👉 S&P 500 back positive at 1.8%
👉 Magnificent 7 stocks turned from Mag 7 to Lag 7 as they are still down 4.1%
👉 while the other 493 S&P 500 members are + 4.6%
Fear & Greed Index (CNN):
👉 ‘we are so back’ in Greed territory at 71 as ‘trade talks’ evolved positively
👉 going forward and in general, for a Maverick contrarian approach considering the 25 (green) and 75 (red) dotted discretionary levels for buying fear and selling greed
S&P 500 Q1 Earnings Scorecard - freshly updated as of May 16th:
👉 earnings growth +13.6% (not bad ... at all ...)
👉 revenue growth +4.7% (not bad ... at all either ...)
N.B. in 2025 my distinct S&P 500 comprehensive reports will get further improved, and this time materially with some special metrics you rarely see … stay tuned!
✍️ S&P 500 Report #6: Valuation, Fundamentals & Special Metrics
✍️ S&P 500 Report #6: Performance, Profitability, Sentiment & More
S&P 500 earnings calls chatter:
👉 ‘tariffs’ the main talk as expected - highest number of S&P 500 companies citing “tariffs” on earnings calls over past 10 years
👉 2018 Trade War 1.0 looks small in comparison with 2025 Trade War 2.0, and that is because in 2018 it was mostly POTUS chatter unlike now
Bitcoin time:
👉 Bitcoin crossed for the 3rd time the >$100,000 milestone driven by the overall risk on environment and buoyant sentiment
While a kind reminder is that 60-80% drawdowns are very common ...
👉 and trading its entire supply (19.8M coins) every 3 weeks ... now one can debate (hopefully constructively) the ins and outs of Bitcoin, though one thing I can say with a high degree of certainty: it is NOT a store of value, the data speaks for itself ...
📊 Incoming Maverick-esque research! 📊
What is coming next through the independent investment & economic research here? Many drafts are work in progress - below a few selected ones:
✍️ Full Equity Research
section start where I will cover in details single businesses/stocks aka deep dives
✍️ Why Independent Investment and Economic Research = Paramount Nowadays!
common sense is not so common, independent research for the win!
✍️ The State of the US Economy in 75 Charts, Edition #4
coming up with further improved coverage charts + recession probability metrics
✍️ Maverick Special Situation #7
how to hedge, lock in the gain or speculate on a very popular stock nowadays
✍️ S&P 500 Report #6: Valuation, Fundamentals & Special Metrics
coming up with further improved metrics via sleek Maverick charts as always
✍️ Maverick Special Report #7: Big Volatility & Drawdowns = Juicy Returns
the price for high returns = digesting and taking advantage of volatility
✍️ Maverick Special Report #8: U.S. Manufacturing = A Bad Wet & Fake Dream
manufacturing is romantic, but not realistic for good reasons for the U.S.
✍️ Maverick Special Report #7: Harvesting Geopolitical Risk Premium Through The 2025 Trade War
taking advantage of the ‘Trade War 2.0’ which drives volatility these days
✍️ Top 50 Maverick Charts to Watch in 2025 and Beyond
sleek Maverick charts with many insights & food for thought for now & the future
Research is NOT behind a paywall and NO pesky ads here unlike most other places!
Did you enjoy this by finding it interesting, saving you time and getting valuable insights? What would be appreciated?
Just sharing this around with like-minded people, and hitting the 🔄 & ❤️ buttons! That’ll definitely support bringing in more & more independent investment research: from a single individual … not a corporate, bank, fund, click-baity media or so … !
Like this, the big positive externalities become the name of the game! Thank you!
Have a great day! And never forget, keep compounding: family, friends, hobbies, community, work, independence, capital, knowledge, research and mindset!
Mav 👋 🤝
Thank You !
Por favor 🙏 si quiero el archivo, muchas gracias