As I mentioned before, gold is the only thing keeping me out of the red in my investment/retirement portfolio. Everything I read indicates future demand, but now speculation (and RSI) are flashing warnings. Last week was a small pause in the weekly rally, but today it kicked back into gear again. How this pans out is unknown, but the lack of data for decisions by the FED and the upcoming CPI, which determines TIPS returns will surely weigh heavily on investor sentiment. I currently have a four month plan, which will hopefully be met, AND provide a little more clarity for the short-term future. I'm considering going back to cash, but my thinking is now being modified by the highly unusual (and continuing) financial context. I never thought I'd see anything this crazy, but here we are. (my GDX holding is up 95% since March 5th)
I really appreciate the comments on home equity and its stabilizing effect. I worry about debt more than I used to, and we're looking to pay off the remaining mortgage balance and reduce our debt load by 25%. Less debt, less worry.
Risk management is key! IMHO best approaches, be it investing or trading should start with 1st risk in mind, not return, return after ... . Good luck all!
Yes my GDX is up a lot. Not as much as yours but my BABA and silver has helped me a lot. Been buying Baba since late ‘22 - a little early but up 143% on the open position and have had incredible trims with it. I usually do swing trading and follow the teachings of Brian Shannon’s 2 books and his risk management philosophy has helped me just as much as the charts
I decided to spread the investment across different metal investments, but staying in mining for the short term. GDX, SIL, CDE are split 50-40-10 respectively. The monthly ROI is 20.51%, and goes back to June. I have serious jitters about an oversold sector, but there's almost nothing other than history or technical charts to guide me. All other indications suggest more demand, more uncertainty, more likely inflation, and a stalled job market. If I can keep an 8-20% return for 4 more months, I will meet my income goals through 2027... being retired requires a disciplined plan, but I also have a 10 year old, so growth is important too. I can't do both types of investing without a certain level of short term adjusting in this crazy period. As always, financial crisis are usually invisible to most of us until it's too late. I've studied 2006-2011 a lot, and see how long it took to hit the bottom.
The gold-to-oil ratio was indeed a good indicator in the past, but with the advent of the new energy era, the demand for oil may not be as great as imagined in the past. This means that the price of oil is unlikely to rise significantly, so the gold-to-oil ratio may rise more because the oil price in the denominator is relatively low.
“I tell you what you need to hear, not what you want to hear. If you want me to tell you what you want to hear, I am not adding any value to you … no echo chambers here!” Respect!
As I mentioned before, gold is the only thing keeping me out of the red in my investment/retirement portfolio. Everything I read indicates future demand, but now speculation (and RSI) are flashing warnings. Last week was a small pause in the weekly rally, but today it kicked back into gear again. How this pans out is unknown, but the lack of data for decisions by the FED and the upcoming CPI, which determines TIPS returns will surely weigh heavily on investor sentiment. I currently have a four month plan, which will hopefully be met, AND provide a little more clarity for the short-term future. I'm considering going back to cash, but my thinking is now being modified by the highly unusual (and continuing) financial context. I never thought I'd see anything this crazy, but here we are. (my GDX holding is up 95% since March 5th)
I really appreciate the comments on home equity and its stabilizing effect. I worry about debt more than I used to, and we're looking to pay off the remaining mortgage balance and reduce our debt load by 25%. Less debt, less worry.
Thanks Maverick.
I hear ya. Pretty smart/ All we can do is manage risk👊🙂 good luck to ya
Risk management is key! IMHO best approaches, be it investing or trading should start with 1st risk in mind, not return, return after ... . Good luck all!
Yes my GDX is up a lot. Not as much as yours but my BABA and silver has helped me a lot. Been buying Baba since late ‘22 - a little early but up 143% on the open position and have had incredible trims with it. I usually do swing trading and follow the teachings of Brian Shannon’s 2 books and his risk management philosophy has helped me just as much as the charts
nice Zach!
I decided to spread the investment across different metal investments, but staying in mining for the short term. GDX, SIL, CDE are split 50-40-10 respectively. The monthly ROI is 20.51%, and goes back to June. I have serious jitters about an oversold sector, but there's almost nothing other than history or technical charts to guide me. All other indications suggest more demand, more uncertainty, more likely inflation, and a stalled job market. If I can keep an 8-20% return for 4 more months, I will meet my income goals through 2027... being retired requires a disciplined plan, but I also have a 10 year old, so growth is important too. I can't do both types of investing without a certain level of short term adjusting in this crazy period. As always, financial crisis are usually invisible to most of us until it's too late. I've studied 2006-2011 a lot, and see how long it took to hit the bottom.
Good luck.
Great take Darryl, good luck and a great weekend ahead!
The gold-to-oil ratio was indeed a good indicator in the past, but with the advent of the new energy era, the demand for oil may not be as great as imagined in the past. This means that the price of oil is unlikely to rise significantly, so the gold-to-oil ratio may rise more because the oil price in the denominator is relatively low.
great insight Colin, fully on the same page, sometimes 'it is different' despite the general case it is always the same :). Cheers!
For all ratio analyses, it is necessary to consider the rate and direction of change in both the numerator and the denominator.
“I tell you what you need to hear, not what you want to hear. If you want me to tell you what you want to hear, I am not adding any value to you … no echo chambers here!” Respect!
cheers to that buddy :)
Wow this is incredible brother. You and Callum Thomas have helped me a lot 👊
Very glad to hear Zach. Cheers! Have a good weekend!