Great write-up. The survey and the options market only half agree, and the split is the interesting part. As of Friday's close the Nasdaq-100's IV rank sat at 55 while the S&P's was 14, so the priced fear is concentrated almost entirely in the AI-heavy index and the broad market is charging very little for the same risk 45% of managers named first. Either the option market thinks it's contained to one basket, or it hasn't repriced yet. On cybersecurity I'd gently push back on "underpriced" being knowable, it's the one tail I can't find a traded instrument for, which makes it hard to say what the price even is.
There is an old Chinese saying: "Development is the most significant fundamental principle." This aligns perfectly with your "bonus" chart—economic growth boosts national confidence, which in turn deepens trust on the government.
Great write-up. The survey and the options market only half agree, and the split is the interesting part. As of Friday's close the Nasdaq-100's IV rank sat at 55 while the S&P's was 14, so the priced fear is concentrated almost entirely in the AI-heavy index and the broad market is charging very little for the same risk 45% of managers named first. Either the option market thinks it's contained to one basket, or it hasn't repriced yet. On cybersecurity I'd gently push back on "underpriced" being knowable, it's the one tail I can't find a traded instrument for, which makes it hard to say what the price even is.
Great take, cheers!
There is an old Chinese saying: "Development is the most significant fundamental principle." This aligns perfectly with your "bonus" chart—economic growth boosts national confidence, which in turn deepens trust on the government.