GDPNow started the quarter near 6% and is at 3.5% now, the New York Fed at 2.7%. Which of the two has been closer to the actual number in the last few quarters?
In the next report you will find even more real-time / live indicators, and in Q1 2027 also recession probability models on the leading/forward looking view.
Good things take time, step by step with a focus on quality.
Love how much ground these five charts cover in such a short read. The jump in underlying growth to 4.6% really stood out to me. Having the Atlanta Fed and New York Fed estimates side by side makes the picture feel clear and easy to follow. Thanks for putting this together.
That was exactly the mindset and goal when doing these: charts for 10,000 words!
Underlying growth is one which rarely I see posted out there, like a 'core' engine growth.
Atlanta Fed and NY Fed come complementary as live quarter tracking together with the Weekly Economic Index which is also a high-frequency real-time great composite indicator.
The full reports will cover way more ground, nuances, sectors, though longer reads, yet also those will have executive summaries and highlights for those that do not want to read it all.
GDPNow started the quarter near 6% and is at 3.5% now, the New York Fed at 2.7%. Which of the two has been closer to the actual number in the last few quarters?
Indeed Tibor.
NY Fed is closer, it is a smoother estimate overall. Atlanta Fed is way more volatile, yet it gets more precise the more we progress into the quarter.
I prefer more the NY Fed in general.
Makes sense, thanks!
Welcome!
In the next report you will find even more real-time / live indicators, and in Q1 2027 also recession probability models on the leading/forward looking view.
Good things take time, step by step with a focus on quality.
Cheers!
Love how much ground these five charts cover in such a short read. The jump in underlying growth to 4.6% really stood out to me. Having the Atlanta Fed and New York Fed estimates side by side makes the picture feel clear and easy to follow. Thanks for putting this together.
Very glad to hear!
That was exactly the mindset and goal when doing these: charts for 10,000 words!
Underlying growth is one which rarely I see posted out there, like a 'core' engine growth.
Atlanta Fed and NY Fed come complementary as live quarter tracking together with the Weekly Economic Index which is also a high-frequency real-time great composite indicator.
The full reports will cover way more ground, nuances, sectors, though longer reads, yet also those will have executive summaries and highlights for those that do not want to read it all.
Welcome, cheers!