Liked the insider net-buy chart. I keep wondering if the signal holds up after you control for sector, most of the big clusters now are tech-heavy by headcount, so not sure how much is broad market vs a few megacaps.
One note in regards to the direct comparisons in your "Themes by Decade"... I'd likely apply a inflation marker to better be able to compare with like-for-like dollar values.
For example, the AI trade compared to 2000 (dot-com) dollars would roughly be devalued 50% in like-for-like dollar value. [based on FRED/Purchasing Power Index simple observation of dollar valuation]
That makes it still the biggest run-up in the lot but it should also be noted that probably half of the insanity can be explained by ... inflation?
One day when data (and related costs) will allow me, I will also do exactly that adjustment. I wish I would have done it now, but for now still some data limitations. Down the road, this will keep improving as well.
By no means asking you to pay for data - I think it's just prudent to note in all the optimism that the dollar roughly devalued 50% in 26 years and the resulting "run-up" is probably also partly responsible. We can see it across all stocks basically, and it's very hard to keep track of the arithmetic (commodities should reprice way higher due to this btw... but let's see)
Sure, never thought so, just saying why I did not do it inflation adjusted.
I hope I can do both nominal and inflation adjusted in the future once I have the data and easy to visualise it: testing some tools these days on that and way more!
Indeed, that's about it, let's see.
P.S. I like and have 4-10% allocation to commodities at any given time, likely that will increase.
Liked the insider net-buy chart. I keep wondering if the signal holds up after you control for sector, most of the big clusters now are tech-heavy by headcount, so not sure how much is broad market vs a few megacaps.
Glad to hear Devon. Great points. I aim for a sectors breakdown in the full report.
Until then, indeed, tech (XLK) insiders are buying at a record pace.
Nice one!
One note in regards to the direct comparisons in your "Themes by Decade"... I'd likely apply a inflation marker to better be able to compare with like-for-like dollar values.
For example, the AI trade compared to 2000 (dot-com) dollars would roughly be devalued 50% in like-for-like dollar value. [based on FRED/Purchasing Power Index simple observation of dollar valuation]
That makes it still the biggest run-up in the lot but it should also be noted that probably half of the insanity can be explained by ... inflation?
Indeed, great idea! Thank you!
One day when data (and related costs) will allow me, I will also do exactly that adjustment. I wish I would have done it now, but for now still some data limitations. Down the road, this will keep improving as well.
Cheers!
By no means asking you to pay for data - I think it's just prudent to note in all the optimism that the dollar roughly devalued 50% in 26 years and the resulting "run-up" is probably also partly responsible. We can see it across all stocks basically, and it's very hard to keep track of the arithmetic (commodities should reprice way higher due to this btw... but let's see)
Sure, never thought so, just saying why I did not do it inflation adjusted.
I hope I can do both nominal and inflation adjusted in the future once I have the data and easy to visualise it: testing some tools these days on that and way more!
Indeed, that's about it, let's see.
P.S. I like and have 4-10% allocation to commodities at any given time, likely that will increase.
Nice work.
Glad to hear Neile, way more incoming ;). Cheers!