✍️ Tail Risks, Consumer & CEO Confidence, Households Allocation, Federal Expenditure = Maverick Macro Charts of the Week #58
4 + 1 Maverick Charts that say 10,000 words
Dear all,
4 + 1 cherry picked Maverick Charts of the week say 10,000 words or more = the ‘How’!
Table of contents = the ‘What’! Executed in a succinct manner with the aim of a high density of ideas, because great research respects the reader’s time:
📊 Maverick Charts: Biggest Tail Risks, Consumer & CEO Confidence, Households Asset Allocation, U.S. Federal Expenditure
📊 Bonus: Public Trust in Government & Long-Term Potential Growth
Objective: both data-driven insights + valuable food for thought = the ‘Why’!
📊 Maverick Charts: Biggest Tail Risks, Consumer & CEO Confidence, Households Asset Allocation, U.S. Federal Expenditure 📊
The biggest macro ‘tail risk’? BofA’s 26th of July Global Fund Manager Survey:
👉 #1 AI Bubble = 45% of fund managers see it as the top tail risk by a wide margin
👉 #2 Inflation = 26%, quite a plunge from May and June way higher levels: market focus basically shifted from the FED fighting inflation to the crowded trade exit door
👉 #3 Disorderly rise in Bond Yields = 14%, dropping lately
👉 #4 Geopolitical Risk = 8%, a big drop from the 20% May levels
👉 #5 DEM Sweep in U.S. midterms = 1%, for the first time into the poll
👉 #6 China growth weakness = 1%, for the first time into the poll
Maverick’s food for thought for you + connecting the dots: while all those above are valid Macro tail risks, what about Micro tail risks on the individual company level?
My top pick and a widely under covered one is cybersecurity risk! And where there is risk and it is also underpriced, there is also return, hence one day I might do a Maverick special Cybersecurity thematic report!
you do not believe in my pick enough? That is good! Check Berkshire Hathaway’s top “Risk Factors” section of their annual report: Berkshire has it as number 2!
Greg Abel, new Berkshire CEO, mentioned it from the get go at the recent AGM:
‘We rely on technology in virtually all aspects of our business.
Like those of many large businesses, certain of our information systems have been subject to cyber threats, including computer viruses, malicious codes, unauthorized access, phishing efforts, denial-of-service attacks and other cyber-attacks.’
P.S. Berkshire’s 2nd quarter 2026 earnings report is expected soon in 2 days time.
Once I am done with the financials, charts and key insights, I will send you the 2nd edition of “The Berkshire Hathaway Report” which is planned to be delivered each quarter, and ad-hoc when very important and timely!
✍️ Buffet’s Berkshire: The Legacy Continues! Stash Away Baby! Fundamentals, Buybacks, Optionality, Valuation, and … Patience! ✍️
If you missed the preview and the latest on Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway:
Consumer & CEO Confidence via the Conference Board:
👉 Consumer = at 90.8, as the index is quite resilient despite the Mid-East conflict, elevated fuel prices, inflation etc
👉 CEO = 47, back into negative territory (below 50) as of mid-year
Maverick’s takeaway looking at this and other metrics:
1) Consumers are quite strong and resilient still nowadays
2) CEOs likely too many reading too much the news, virtue signalling, how hard they have it etc, instead of DOING stuff, justifying their overpaid wages (most cases) — one could easily find replacements in many cases for ¾ or ½ of the cost
N.B. I exclude owner-operator CEOs as those have Skin In The Game (STIG) — I refer mainly to ‘Corporate CEOs’ that are just good at ‘relationships’, fraternity club folks, complaining, finding excuses ‘the difficult environment’ than doing things via their ‘alpha’, well beta in reality ‘skills’ …
Households Asset Allocation:
👉 more wealth in equities than in real estate now (% of U.S. Households Net Worth)!
Quite some implications there, and I will cover those in the future reports.
U.S. Federal Expenditure by Year:
👉 2026 above the previous years, and by quite a bit = not good!
Also this year you’ll get a dedicated coverage on the topic via an updated report. Until then, you can check the 2025 version:
📊 Bonus: Public Trust in Government & Long-Term Potential Growth 📊
U.S. Public Trust in Government & Long-Term Potential Growth since 1970:
👉 while potential growth got a kick lately, trust has tanked!
👉 reminder on Trust = it is huge in both consumption & investing via specific asset allocation (real economy & financial assets)
P.S. way more on the U.S. Economy via my improved deep dive — for both Top-Down & Bottom-Up approaches, connecting the mighty Macro-Finance bridge:
✍️ The State of the U.S. Economy in 75 Charts = A Deep Dive! ✍️
The report breaks down the U.S. economy and ultimately aims to answer two of the biggest questions in Finance and Economics:
“How are the Fundamentals of the U.S. Economy?“
“What is the Probability of a Recession?”
✍️ Decoding the U.S. Economy in Real-Time Through Sleek High Frequency & Alternative Data ✍️
decoding the U.S. Economy by looking way beyond the traditional economic metrics, namely, through the lens of real-time, high frequency & alternative data!
in essence, a ‘live’ view on the state of the U.S. Economy, and quite a unique report which you do not see elsewhere!
a sharper and timely way to understand the macro forces shaping investing and overall financial markets!
Maverick Charts 58th edition done, 4 key charts with many insights + 1 Bonus!
You can check all the previous 57 editions in the Maverick Charts section!
Mission accomplished for me if the following resonates with you:
‘Hmm I never thought it that way’, ‘now that chart said a whole lot’, ‘now that chart was really interesting’, ‘now that is something new’, ‘now I got it!’, ‘you managed to turn something complex into something actually simple’
hence, if you got to see something differently, my approach gave you a different angle, it did help you connect your key dots, then we all do well here!
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Have a great day! And never forget, keep compounding: family, friends, community, capital, knowledge, research and mindset!
With respect,
Mav 👋 🤝
“Compound interest is both the ultimate and biggest natural hedge!”
Maverick Equity Research
